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Previous issue date: 2017-03-28 / The objective of this study is to verify if the use of multiples for valuation of companies during their initial public offering is a good predictor of their stock prices. For this study, 71 IPO???s from the Brazilian market that met the selection criteria were analyzed among 117 IPO???s that were approved by the CVM during the period from 2004 to 2014, using the three valuation multiples with higher incidence of recommendations among the analyzed scientific studies surveyed for the elaboration of this work: Price to Book, Price to Earnings and Enterprise Value to EBITDA. This study has compared the multiples of IPOs with the same multiples of companies belonging to the same sector of activity (peers), in two distinct moments: (i) the day of the IPO's and (ii) the day before of the IPO. The analysis was structured in three models: (i) relating the multiple of the IPO to the mean, median and harmonic mean of this same multiple for their peers, (ii) adding dummies related to the year of IPO in the previous model and (iii) adding variables related to size, leverage and return to the previous model. For all models, MQO regressions were performed. As a result, the work found statistical significance to the multiple Price to Earnings when the mean was used in the Model III, showing significance with the use of the difference of returns. Statistical significance was also founded to the multiple Enterprise Value to EBITDA when the mean was used to the Model I, which show the best adjustments demonstrated by R??, although it did not find statistical significance for the Price to Book multiple. / O trabalho a seguir tem por objetivo analisar se a utiliza????o de m??ltiplos para a avalia????o de empresas no momento de sua abertura de capital ?? um bom previsor para o pre??o das a????es destas empresas. Para este trabalho foram analisados 71 IPO???s do mercado brasileiro que atenderam aos crit??rios de sele????o entre os 117 IPO???s que foram aprovadas pela Comiss??o de Valores Mobili??rios ??? CVM, durante o per??odo de 2004 a 2014, utilizando-se dos tr??s m??ltiplos com maior incid??ncia de recomenda????es entre os estudos pesquisados para a elabora????o deste trabalho: Price to Book, Price to Earnings e Enterprise Value to EBITDA. O trabalho comparou os m??ltiplos dos IPO???s com os mesmos m??ltiplos de empresas pertencentes ao mesmo setor de atua????o (peers), em dois momentos distintos: (i) o dia da estreia do IPO na bolsa e (ii) o dia de negocia????es anterior a esta estreia. As an??lises foram estruturadas em 3 modelos, sendo: (i) relacionando o m??ltiplo do IPO com a m??dia, mediana e m??dia harm??nica deste mesmo m??ltiplo para seus peers, (ii) acrescentando dummies referente ao ano da emiss??o do IPO ao modelo anterior e (iii) acrescentando vari??veis relacionadas ao tamanho, alavancagem e endividamento ao modelo anterior. Para todos os modelos, foram realizadas regress??es MQO. Como resultado, o trabalho encontrou signific??ncia estat??stica para os m??ltiplos Price to Earnings quando utilizada a m??dia para o Modelo III, apresentando signific??ncia com a utiliza????o da diferen??a dos retornos. Encontrou tamb??m signific??ncia estat??stica para o m??ltiplo Enterprise Value to EBITDA, quando utilizada a m??dia para o Modelo I, o qual apresentou melhores ajustes demonstrados pelo R??, embora n??o tenha encontrado signific??ncia estat??stica para o m??ltiplo Price to Book.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:132.0.0.61:jspui/751 |
| Date | 28 March 2017 |
| Creators | ORLOVAS, Anatoli Dias |
| Contributors | SERRA, Ricardo Goulart, CARRETE, Liliam Sanchez, CONTANI, Eduardo Augusto do Ros??rio |
| Publisher | FECAP, Mestrado em Administra????o, FECAP, Brasil, Funda????o Escola de Com??rcio ??lvares Penteado |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações do FECAP, instname:Fundação Aramando Álvares Penteado, instacron:FAAP |
| Rights | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/, info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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