Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is remarkable that population, which is at the centre of the economic problem - the Wealth if
not the Poverty of Nations - has received scant attention in economic research in South Africa.
Which is probably why we can have a NEW - so designated in the Draft Report - population
policy propounded by government (in 1997) which manifests little appreciation of the economics
of population. This dissertation is an attempt to demonstrate why the void should be filled and to
bring to light specific topics within the broader subject matter that could be fruitfully researched.
The demographic scene in South Africa lends itself to a telling demonstration of the economic
effects of population movements by way of contrasting the experience of the high fertility,
youthful Black population - with a total fertility rate of around 37 after having been 6,75 in the
1950s - and that of the demographically older non-Blacks, among whom the Whites exhibit a
fertility level way below the replacement rate of 2,1, while that of the Asians (Indians) and
Coloureds has almost reached that rate. Since the former has a share of more than a dominant
three-quarters in the aggregate South African population, the emphasis is inevitably on the
economic consequences of rapid population growth and its attendant demographic magnitudes:
fertility, mortality, migration, age and sex composition, spatial distribution and, what is called
"economic quality" of the population as manifested in its supply of enterprise.
The analysis is presented in the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Supply is examined by
linking demographic forces to the five factors of production whose co-operation is responsible
for the generation of the national product: entrepreneurship, (ordinary) labour, natural resources,
technology and capital. The population has to generate an adequate supply of entrepreneurs, and
the two human factors of production have to have one or more of the non-human factors at their
disposal to accommodate the population economically. Proliferating human numbers can be
destructive of natural resources, and in conflict with the formation of capital, the accumulation of
technology and their potential economic welfare-enhancing operation.
The demand aspects are analysed by linking on to the four macro demand components in the
national accounts system: Household consumption, Government consumption, Investment (visa-
vis saving) and foreign trade. Some of the issues discussed are: the stability deriving from a
population elasticity of demand close to 1,0; the comparative significance of the population
versus the affluence factor; the role of high fertility in the acquisition, at the election polls, of economic power via political power, and its consequences for the diversion of demand; the
capital absorbed in "demographic investments"; and the significance of the South African factor
endowment for its foreign trade.
From the above analyses conclusions could be drawn about econormc growth, poverty,
unemployment and the economic value of a life.
In human populations, in sub-Saharan Africa at least, quantity is the adversary of quality. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is merkwaardig dat Bevolking, wat aan die middelpunt staan van die Rykdom van Volkere
indien nie van die Armoede nie, so weinig aandag in die ekonomiese literatuur van Suid-Afrika
geniet. Dit is waarskynlik waarom die regering in 1997 'n NUWE bevolkingsbeleid - so
gespesifiseer in die konsepwitskrif - kan voorstel wat weinig aanduiding toon van 'n waardering
vir die Ekonomie van Demografiese tendense. Hierdie dissertasie is 'n poging om te demonstreer
waarom die leemte gevul moet word, en om spesifieke onderwerpe, binne die breëre raamwerk,
vir verdere ondersoek aan die lig te bring.
Die demografiese toneel in Suid-Afrika leen homself tot 'n treffende demonstrasie van die
ekonomiese gevolge van demografiese tendense by wyse van 'n kontrastering van die
ondervinding van die snelgroeiende, jeugdige Swart bevolking - met 'n totale fertiliteitsyfer
(TFS) van nagenoeg 3.7, nadat dit gedurende die vyftigerjare 6,75 was - en dié van die
demografies-ouer nie-Swart bevolking, onder wie die Blankes, met 'n TFS wat reeds ver benede
verplasingskoers van 2,1 is, en Asiërs (Indiërs) en Kleurlinge wat alreeds byna daardie peil
bereik het. Aangesien eersgenoemde etniese groep ook nog 'n oorheersende aandeel van meer as
driekwart in die totale SA bevolkingsgrootte het, is dit onvermydelik dat die nadruk sal val op
die ekonomiese gevolge van snelle bevolkingsgroei met die daarmee samehangende
demografiese groothede: fertiliteit, mortaliteit, migrasie, leeftyd- en geslagsamestelling,
geografiese verspreiding en ook "ekonomiese kwaliteit" soos dit in die aanbod van ondernemerskap
gemanifesteer word.
Die analise word in die tradisionele vraag en aanbod paradigma aangebied. Aanbod word ontleed
deur demografiese faktore te koppel met die vyf produksiefaktore waarvan die samewerking vir
die skepping van die nasionale produk verantwoordelik is: ondernemers, arbeid, natuurlike
hulpbronne, tegnologie en kapitaal. Die bevolking moet 'n voldoende aantalondernemers
verwek, en die twee menslike produksiefaktore benodig die bystand van een of meer van die niemenslike
faktore, om die bevolking ekonomies te kan akkommodeer. Vermenigvuldigende
mensegetalle kan vernietigend inwerk op natuurlike hulpbronne en kan in konflik verkeer met
kapitaalvorming en tegnologie-akkumulasie en hul ekonomiese welsynsbevorderende werking.
Die vraag-aspekte word analiseer deur aan te sluit by die vier makro vraagkomponente in die
nasionale boekhoudingstelsel : huishoudelike verbruik, regeringskonsumpsie, belegging (vis-a-vis
besparing) en buitlandse handel. Aangeleenthede wat onder die loep geneem word, sluit, onder andere, die volgende in: stabiliteit wat voorspruit uit 'n bevolkingselastisiteit van vraag wat
nagenoeg 1 is; die vergelykende invloed van ekonomiese oorvloed teenoor die menslike
getallefaktor; die rol van hoë fertiliteit in die verkryging van ekonomiese mag deur middel van
die stembus en sy gevolge vir die omleiding van vraag; die kapitaal wat in "demografiese
beleggings" geabsorbeer word; en die betekenis van die Suid-Afrikaanse produksiefaktorbegunstiging
vir sy internasionale handel.
Uit bogenoemde ontledings kan gevolgtrekkinge gemaak word ten opsigte van ekonomiese
groei, armoede, werkloosheid en die ekonomiese waarde van 'n menselewe.
In menslike bevolkings - minstens sover dit sub-Sahara-Afrika betref - staan kwantiteit in 'n
adversatiewe houding teenoor kwaliteit.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/51963 |
| Date | January 2000 |
| Creators | Sadie, J. L. (Johannes L.), 1918- |
| Contributors | McCarthy, C.L., Smit, B.W., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 454 p. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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