A large array of literature has revealed the complexity of export performance analysis. Using the case of Ghana, this dissertation, divided into three essays, seeks to provide the methodological guidance, empirical and simulation evidence necessary to analyze a countrys export performance. The choice of Ghana was motivated by the countrys growth experience, strong export and agricultural sectors and implemented reforms and programs since 1983.
In the first essay, we created a new trade-weighted Cedi index or real effective exchange rate (REER) that takes into account Ghanas most relevant patterns of trade and captures the evolution of Ghanas export price competitiveness overtime. Other factors of export performance have been identified collecting the perspectives of Ghanas agricultural export sector stakeholders and using grounded theory. This research showed that Ghanas export price competitiveness, as depicted by the REER, has improved since 1983 but has revealed many additional factors that played a role in the performance of Ghanas agricultural export sector.
Following export demand theory and the procedure of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) (TYDL), the second essay estimates causal relationships between exports, the REER and foreign activity over the 1970-2009 period. Two additional models (VAR-GARCH-in-mean) were estimated to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on Ghanas exports. The results support the view that some of the implemented macroeconomic reforms have been the cause of Ghanas export performance. Additionally, we found that third-country exchange rate volatility has hampered Ghanas export growth.
The third essay tackles methodological shortcomings of the TYDL procedure. In a Monte Carlo experiment, we compared the Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC) and the likelihood ratio (LR) tests in terms of their lag order frequency distributions and the finite sample properties of the resulting modified Wald (MWALD) tests. We found that in general, the SBC selects the true lag length more often than the LR tests and that in large samples the choice of the lag selection method does not influence non-causality tests results. This research also revealed that in the presence of moving average terms or in the case of mixed unit-root processes, MWALD tests perform poorly.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LSU/oai:etd.lsu.edu:etd-07082013-105553 |
| Date | 11 July 2013 |
| Creators | Pujula, Aude L. |
| Contributors | Zapata, Hector O., Harrison, R. Wes, Hinson, Roger A., Koray, Faik A., Namikas, Steven L., Kennedy, P. Lynn |
| Publisher | LSU |
| Source Sets | Louisiana State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-07082013-105553/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached herein a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to LSU or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below and in appropriate University policies, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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