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Analysis of Trade in the Western Hemisphere Utilizing a Gravity Model Framework

With the recent proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) the tendency world-wide has been seemingly toward trade liberalization. This thesis is primarily concerned with the impacts RTAs have had in the Western Hemisphere regarding agricultural trade flows. Utilizing the framework of the Gravity Model, agricultural trade flows for 24 Western Hemisphere Nations were examined. In the course of the study it was expected that if RTAs were to have an effect it would be a positive Trade Creation Effect and a negative Trade Diversion Effect with positive effects for GDP of importer/exporter and population size of importer/exporter and a negative effect for that of distance. Of the five agreements examined (NAFTA, AC, MERCO, LAIA, and CACM), NAFTA and LAIA were the only positive (but non-significant) as to Trade Creation effects while AC, MERCO, and CACM were all negative (but non-significant). It was also interesting to note that of the agreements, NAFTA, had both a positive and significant (p=0.023) diversionary effect with the remaining agreements all being negative (as expected) and significant regarding trade diversion. It was also concluded that GDP (importer) and distance also had the expected signs (+, respectively) with distance also being significant (p=0.0001). It was concluded that RTAs had a more pronounced effect on inter-industry trade versus intra-industry trade and that with the passage of more time, further analysis may substantiate the claim of a positive RTA effect on agricultural bilateral trade flows.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:LSU/oai:etd.lsu.edu:etd-04192006-102931
Date19 April 2006
CreatorsHilbun, Brian Matthew
ContributorsP. Lynn Kennedy, Michael E. Salassi, Gail L. Cramer
PublisherLSU
Source SetsLouisiana State University
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
Formatapplication/pdf
Sourcehttp://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-04192006-102931/
Rightsunrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached herein a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to LSU or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below and in appropriate University policies, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report.

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