This dissertation provides the analysis necessary to launch the first direct climate markets. Combining statistical modeling with qualitative interviews, I build off of an innovative insurance project to show why and how to start traded markets on indexes of El Niño/La Niña. I provide statistical models of El Niño/La Niña's worldwide economic impacts; a stochastic catalog used to price virtually any risk management contract on El Niño/La Niña, even as new forecasts change traders' expectations; a comprehensive statistical description of the lifecycle of new derivatives showing how the prospects for new derivatives changed fundamentally in the last decade (this work is co-authored by Michael Penick, Senior Economist at the US government's derivatives regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission); and, interviews with risk management professionals at businesses facing El Niño/La Niña risk and financial firms interested in trading that risk. Based on this analysis, I conclude that catastrophe bonds settling on NOAA's Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures can, and likely will, launch in the near future.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uky.edu/oai:uknowledge.uky.edu:agecon_etds-1017 |
| Date | 01 January 2013 |
| Creators | Cavanaugh, Grant |
| Publisher | UKnowledge |
| Source Sets | University of Kentucky |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics |
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