Computer decision aids can help integrate and apply
diverse sources of information and expertise to problems of
integrated pest management (IPM) in agriculture and
forestry. AppleMgr combines a rule-based expert system with
databases and spreadsheets in a prototype decision aid
intended to be expanded and modified for use by extension
workers in the Northwest U.S. The program requires an IBMcompatible
microcomputer with hard disk. AppleMgr
concentrates on the two most important insect pests on apple
in the Northwest--codling moth, Cydia, pomonella (L.), and
San Jose scale, Quadraspidiotus perniciosus Comstock, and on
phytophagous mites, whose control largely depends on
predators. The primary goal of AppleMgr is to demonstrate
an improved process of decision making in apple IPM.
AppleMgr is composed of modules for diagnosis of pest
injury, identification of pest and natural enemy specimens,
and management. The first two modules arrive at conclusions
through backward-chaining inference from user observations.
The management module uses backward chaining supplemented
with external calculation programs to find the net benefit
of a pesticide application. A method is included to predict
yield and fruit size from crop samples. Cullage from
codling moth and San Jose scale, mite effect on fruit size,
probability of biological mite control and pesticide
efficacy are predicted from researchers' data and estimates.
Selected relative beneficial and adverse side effects of
pesticides are presented in spreadsheets.
An analysis of packing house records for apple crops
from eight orchards at three yields using 1987 and 1988
prices and packing charges showed that net crop value varied
by up to $8000 per acre. The variability in crop value and
the importance of adverse side effects of pesticides suggest
that the commonly-used "action thresholds" for treatment are
seriously inadequate. AppleMgr may point the way toward
more dynamic and realistic methods of IPM decision making. / Graduation date: 1990
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ORGSU/oai:ir.library.oregonstate.edu:1957/38244 |
| Date | 09 March 1990 |
| Creators | Haley, Sue |
| Contributors | Croft, Brian A. |
| Source Sets | Oregon State University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
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