Dissertation (PhD (Agric))--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this dissertation was to investigate the structural imbalances of the wheat industry
of the Western Cape Province and, with due recognition of a changing environment, to develop an
effective strategy for the industry.
It was found that the origins of the structural imbalances could be detected in the interaction
between policy, technological and demand factors and is not unique to the specific industry. The
farm problem provides an explanation for the instability of and downward pressure on wheat prices
as well as the sluggish adaptation to environmental change experienced in the wheat industry.
Internationally similar problems led to a whole range of policy measures. Relatively unique to
South African agriculture, but not only to the Western Cape wheat industry, is the circumstances
that gave rise to the current dual structure of the domestic agricultural sector. The origins of these
circumstances could be traced back to the Dutch settlement of the Cape in 1652 and the resulting
measures was later upheld under British rule. After the commercialisation of the local agricultural
sector following the discovery of diamonds in South Africa, certain measures were lobbied for at
the end of the 19th Century to protect white farmers. These measures were expanded in the 20th
Century and gave rise to the particular duality along ethnic lines of the South African agricultural
sector.
If it is accepted that the structural problems of the wheat industry are the result of political, policy,
technological and demand factors, the question of the potential future role of the sector, and more
specifically the wheat industry, can be asked. It was established that agriculture is a natural catalyst
for economic development through the provision of food, foreign exchange, manpower, and capital
formation as well as a market for industrial produce. Whereas the potential exists, agriculture has
not yet fulfilled this role in Southern Africa due to inconsistent domestic policy, adverse trade
regimes, inappropriate technology and problems encountered in the management of development.
This potential role of agriculture has been quantified for the Western Cape Province.
In the development of a strategy for an industry it is imperative to evaluate the future economic and
social environment. It was verified that in the next phase of economic development, towards
information societies, agriculture would still fulfil the functions previously mentioned. However, a
new and more esoteric role relating to identity could be added to this list in an information society.
Given the important role of agriculture as described in the previous section, intuition would lead
one to expect that government would play an important role in alleviating the structural problems of
the Western Cape wheat industry. However, contrary to this intuitive expectation it was found that,
in alleviating the problems of the Western Cape wheat industry, government intervention will be
largely limited to creating a favourable enabling environment. In getting to this conclusion the
theory of welfare economics, public choice and politician - voter interaction were explored. The
traditional wisdom has it that in searching for a Pareto-optimal state, or at least a second-best
solution, pressure group activities may play an important role. This is seen as important due to the
difficulties, as indicated by Arrow's impossibility theorem, in transforming individual preferences
into political preference functions. However, numerous examples have shown that pressure group
activities may only playa marginal role in influencing the final outcome. The underlying structural
characteristics of the national and provincial economies may be a more important determinant. This
became more certain as the way politicians perceived agriculture before and after the 1994 political
transition was analysed.
It follows that a strategy for the wheat industry of the Western Cape will take the global, social,
policy, natural and consumer environment into account and both the strategy and the industry will
have to be self-reliant. It was argued that a solution would be found in changing the slope
(elasticity) of the demand and supply functions for agricultural produce. With the aid of a spatial
model developed the impact of the different elements of the strategy on the profitability of wheat
production in the Western Cape was evaluated. This model took into consideration the yield
potential for wheat, the gross and net margin of wheat production, spatial dispersion, transport costs
and also made provision for different intermediate markets. It was found that each of the
components of the strategy would substantially contribute to a more profitable wheat industry for
the Western Cape. The combined effect of the strategy would result in a 97 percent decrease in the
area where wheat production is unprofitable. Profitable production of wheat would be possible on
99,3 percent of the total area that is suitable for rainfed wheat production. The production of wheat
would be highly profitable at a margin of more than R200 per ton on more than 1,1 million hectares
(77,1% of the total area).
It is concluded that, while taking the global, social, policy, natural and consumer environment into
account and without relying on government, a strategy could be developed that will rectify the
structural problems of the Western Cape wheat industry. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie proefskrif was om die strukturele wanbalanse van die koringbedryf in die Wes-
Kaap Provinsie te ondersoek en, om met erkenning aan 'n veranderde omgewing, 'n effektiewe
strategie vir die bedryf te ontwikkel.
Dit is bevind dat die oorsprong van die strukturele wanbalanse uit die interaksie tussen beleid-,
tegnologiese- en vraagfaktore spruit en dat die wanbalanse nie uniek is tot die bedryf nie. 'n
Verklaring vir die onstabiliteit van- en afwaartse druk op koringpryse, sowel as die trae aanpassings
van die bedryf by omgewingsveranderings, word deur die plaasprobleem gebied. Soortgelyke
probleme het globaal tot 'n verskeidenheid van beleidmaatreëls aanleiding gegee. Wat wel uniek is
tot die Suid-Afrikaanse landbou, maar nie tot die plaaslike koringbedryf nie, is die omstandighede
wat tot die huidige dualistiese struktuur van die landbou sektor aanleiding gegee het. Die oorsprong
van die omstandighede kan teruggespoor word tot die Hollandse besetting van die Kaap in 1652 en
die gepaardgaande maatreëls wat ook onder Britse bewind in stand gehou is. Na die
kommersialisering van die plaaslike landbou sektor, wat op die ontdekking van diamante in Suid-
Afrika gevolg het, is bepaalde maatreëls aan die einde van die 19de eeu deur drukgroepe beding ten
einde blanke boere te beskerm. Hierdie maatreëls is in die 20ste eeu uitgebrei en het die unieke
dualiteit op etniese gronde van die Suid-Afrikaanse landbou sektor tot gevolg gehad.
Met aanvaarding daarvan dat die strukturele wanbalanse van die koringbedryf die resultaat is van
politieke, beleid, tegnologiese en vraag faktore, kan dit gevra word of die sektor, en meer spesifiek
die koringbedryf, nog 'n rol te speel het. Dit is gevind dat landbou 'n natuurlike katalisator vir
ontwikkeling kan wees deur die verskaffing van voedsel, buitelandse valuta, mannekrag, kapitaal
vorming en 'n mark vir industriële goedere. Ten spyte van die bestaande potensiaal kon landbou
nog nie hierdie rol in Suidelike Afrika vervul nie, hoofsaaklik as gevolg van inkonsekwente
binnelandse beleid, onvriendelike handelsomgewings, nie-geskikte tegnologie en ontwikkelingsbestuur
probleme. Die potensiële rol van landbou in die Wes-Kaap Provinsie is gekwantifiseer.
Dit is belangrik om tydens die ontwikkeling van 'n strategie vir 'n bedryf ook die toekomstige
ekonomiese en sosiale omgewing in aanmerking te neem. Dit is bevestig dat in die volgende fase
van ekonomiese ontwikkeling, dié van 'n inligtings gemeenskap, landbou steeds die voorgenoemde
funksies sal vervul. 'n Nuwe en meer esoteriese funksie, gefokus op identiteit, kan egter in 'n
inligtingsgemeenskap tot die lys toegevoeg word.
Gegewe hierdie belangrike rol van landbou kan intuïtief verwag word dat die owerheid bereid sal
wees om 'n belangrike bydrae te maak tot die verligting van die strukturele probleme van die Wes-
Kaapse koringbedryf. Teenstrydig met hierdie intuïtiewe verwagting is egter bevind dat owerheids
betrokkenheid hoofsaaklik beperk sal wees tot die skepping van 'n gunstige en bemagtigende
omgewing. Ten einde hierdie gevolgtrekking te bereik is welfaart ekonomie, publieke keuse en
politici - kieser interaksie teorie bestudeer. Volgens tradisionele denke kan drukgroep aktiwiteite
'n belangrike rol speel in die soeke na 'n Pareto-optimale staat, of ten minste in die soeke na 'n
tweede-beste oplossing. Weens probleme in die transformasie van individuele voorkeure na
politieke voorkeur funksies, soos beskryf deur die onmoontlikheidsteorie van Arrow, word hierdie
aktiwiteite as belangrik geag. Veelvuldige voorbeelde dui egter daarop dat drukgroep aktiwiteite
slegs 'n marginale rol kan speel in die beïnvloeding van finale uitkomste. Dit blyk dat
onderliggende eienskappe van die nasionale en provinsiale ekonomië meer bepalende faktore kan
wees. Hierdie vermoede is bevestig namate die politieke persepsie van die landbou voor en na die
1994 politieke transformasie geanaliseer is.
Uit die voorafgaande is dit duidelik dat 'n strategie vir die koringbedryf van die Wes-Kaap die
internasionale, sosiale, politieke, natuurlike en verbruikers omgewing in aanmerking sal moet neem.
Dit is ook duidelik dat beide die strategie en die bedryf self onderhoudend sal moet wees. Dit word
aangevoer dat 'n oplossing gevind kan word indien die helling (elastisiteit) van die vraag en aanbod
funksies van landbouprodukte aangepas kan word. Met behulp van 'n ruimtelike model wat
ontwikkel is, is die impak van die verskillende elemente van die strategie op die winsgewendheid
van koringproduksie in die Wes-Kaap geëvalueer. Hierdie model het onder meer die opbrengs
potensiaal van koring, die bruto en netto marge van koringproduksie, ruimtelike verspreiding,
vervoerkoste en verskillende intermediêre markte in aanmerking geneem. Dit is bevind dat elk van
die elemente van die strategie beduidend tot winsgewende koringproduksie in die Wes-Kaap kan
bydra. Die strategie kan daartoe lei dat die oppervlakte met nie-winsgewende koringproduksie met
97 persent sal afneem. Koring kan winsgewend verbou word op 99,3 persent van die area geskik
vir droëland produksie. Terselfdertyd sal koring, teen 'n marge van R200 per ton, hoogs
winsgewend verbou kan word op nagenoeg 1,1 miljoen hektaar (77,1 persent van die totale area).
Ten slotte blyk dit dat, met inagneming van die internasionale, sosiale, politieke, natuurlike en
verbruikers omgewing, en sonder dat op owerheids ondersteuning staatgemaak word, 'n strategie
ontwikkel kon word wat die strukturele wanbalanse van die Wes-Kaapse koringbedryf kan oplos.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52463 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Troskie, Dirk Pieter |
| Contributors | Vink, N., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 373 p. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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