The demand for emergency ambulance services in Hong Kong is on the rise.
Issues such as climate change, ageing population, constrained space, and limited
resource capacity mean that the present way of meeting service demand by injecting
more resources will reach its limit in the near future and unlikely to be sustainable.
There is an urgent need to develop a more realistic forecast model to account for the
anticipated demand for emergency ambulance services to enable better strategic
planning of resources and more effective logistic arrangement. In this connection, the
research objectives of this thesis include the following:
1. To examine relationships between weather and ambulance demand, with
specific reference to temperature effects on demographic and admission
characteristics of patients.
2. To establish a quantitative model for short-term (1-7 days ahead) forecast of
ambulance demand in Hong Kong.
3. To estimate the longer-term demand for ambulance services by sub areas in
Hong Kong, taking into account projected weather and population changes in 2019 and 2036.
The research concurs with the findings of other researchers that temperature was
the most important weather factor affecting the daily ambulance demand in
2006-2009, accounting for 49% of the demand variance. An even higher demand
variance of 74% could be explained among people aged 65 and above. The
incorporation of 1-7 day forecast data of the average temperature improved the
forecast accuracy of daily ambulance demand on average by 33% in terms of R2 and
11% in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). Moreover, the forecast accuracy
could be further improved by as much as 4% for both R2 and RMSE through spatial
sub models. For demand projection of a longer-term, significant underestimation was
observed if changes in the population demographics were not considered. The
underestimation of annual ambulance demand for 2019 and 2036 was 16% and 38%
respectively.
The research has practical and methodological implications. First, the
quantitative model for short-term forecast can inform demand in the next few days to
enable logistic deployment of ambulance services beforehand, which, in turn, ensures
that potential victims can be served in a swift and efficient manner. Second, the
longer-term projection on the demand for ambulance services enables better
preparation and planning for the expected rise in demand in time and space.
Unbudgeted or unnecessary purchases of ambulances can be prevented without
compromising preparedness and service quality. Third, the methodology is adaptable
and the model can be reconstituted when more accurate projections on weather and
population changes become available. / published_or_final_version / Geography / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:HKU/oai:hub.hku.hk:10722/174477 |
| Date | January 2012 |
| Creators | Wong, Ho-ting., 黃浩霆. |
| Contributors | Lai, PC |
| Publisher | The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) |
| Source Sets | Hong Kong University Theses |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | PG_Thesis |
| Source | http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4775297X |
| Rights | The author retains all proprietary rights, (such as patent rights) and the right to use in future works., Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License |
| Relation | HKU Theses Online (HKUTO) |
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