2015年3 月，IHS市場調查公司預估由於太陽能光伏企業繼續整合併購有利於市場擴大佔有的連動關係，使得大者恆大，而且平均售價快速下降，驅動市場需求更加高速增長，2020年全球太陽能光伏電站累計安裝量將達到500GW，比較2005年的5.3GW有如天壤之別，同時說明往後五年每年平均安裝64GW，也代表全球投資在太陽能光伏產業的資金每年高達1500億美元，依次中、美、日三國為領先主要投資在新能源建設。再查看平均售價（太陽板光伏模組）2005年價格約為3.5USD/W，隨著市場逐漸增大，預估價格也在2014年降至0.6USD/W。2015-2019年全球總產值將達到5120億美金（以太陽能光伏電站為基礎，系統價格160萬USD/1MW）。
雖然兩岸太陽能光伏產業共同面對一個極具規模及潛力的全球市場，但由於2010-2012年間供需失衡，產能過剩，急速下降的市場平均售價，歐美許多公司工廠因此關廠倒閉，進而對兩岸進行兩次所謂“雙反”–反傾銷Anti Dumping Duty及反補貼Counter Vailing Duty調查，最後判定對矽晶太陽能光伏產品加以處罰性進口關稅。依照WTO世界貿易組織規定會員國在面臨外國進口產品進行不公平競爭，並損害其國內產業時，可以採取救濟措施保護其國內產業，“雙反”就是措施手段之一。2014年大陸也針對美國多晶矽料實施53-57% Anti-Dumping Duty作為反制，目前中美雙方仍處在對峙中，但可預見隨著市場條件改變，將可能達成某種雙方可接受的妥協。
本研究把兩岸太陽能光伏產業競合策略放在上面兩個最大的標題之間及緊迫的時間軸上面，針對兩岸各自產業都已掉入虧損情況（第四章大陸與台灣個案研究），期待從競合策略的積極面（合作是為了創造新生價值，找出潛藏利益，甚至創新價值、價值整合，再爭取自己所創造的價值），加上絲毫不能忽視國家政府在文化、歷史、民族的角度及ECFA大框架協議的前提進行分析得到結論，並且做出建議。當兩岸太陽能光伏產業共同面對普遍存在的“雙反”又同時面向全球市場，台灣在思考競合策略的時候，必須認清在經濟層面上與韓國進行幾乎全面各產業競爭。特別關於時間緊迫，本研究認為無論從面板產業、IC設計產業，都已經說明台灣的技術優勢在快速流失，而大陸方面正傾全國之力加速超前，形成自主（紅色）供應鏈。換句話說，時間完全不在台灣這一邊，如果再對比韓國可以配合大陸的合作條件，台灣更沒有猶豫片刻，佇足不前的理由和本錢了！在非經濟層面上又擁有最好的文化、歷史、民族背景跟大陸進行合作，另外在更高的政治層面的考慮，如臺灣之小，大陸之大，夾存在中日美三個強國之間，臺灣的選擇應該是非常清晰可分辨，並且在極度的時間壓力下應該積極運用國家政府有效作為，盡快在ECFA大框架協議下推進各項服貿、投保、金融協議、導引兩岸太陽能光伏從企業、產業到國家組合全面互利互惠合作達到面向全球市場雙贏局面。 / 2015 March, IHS market survey company forecasts Average Selling Price (ASP) will decrease rapidly and drive much higher demand growth rate, due to the Photovoltaic industries continue merger and acquisition. The forecast also indicates global accumulated installation capacity will reach 500GW in 2020, compared with 5.3GW in the year of 2005 which displays promising growth, meanwhile averages yearly installation capacity of 64GW in next five years and yearly investment of 150B USD globally. When looking into price details that PV module selling price of 3.5USD/W in 2005 has dropped to 0.6USD/W of 2014 which translates gross product value of 512B USD, with price reference of 1.6M USD/1MW solar power system.
Both sides of the Taiwan Straits are facing a huge potential but challenging global market of Photovoltaic industries. The period of 2010-2012 not only generated the peak of demand, also induced problematic over-supply and selling price free-fall. Factories in Europe and North America are forced to become insolvent, then claimed for the restricting of import with Anti Dumping Duty (ADD) and Counter Vailing Duty (CVD) against mainland China and Taiwan, according to WTO regulations. In the year of 2014, mainland China also initiated a reactive measures of ADD against polysilicon imported from USA. Currently mainland China and USA are still struggling the head-on situation, but are believed to reach a compromise solutions under the Photovoltaic market development.
We study the issue of Anti Dumping Duty (ADD) and Counter Vailing Duty (CVD) for the example of Photovoltaic industries, covering both sides of Cross-Strait. We focus Co-opetition in terms of time pressure, each side reporting business loss and propose a very constructive and active strategy as the essence from Co-opetition (Creating Value that You Can Capture is the Central Theme in Co-opetition). Of course, we should never ignore government playing a critically influential role based on culture, history, Chinese nation and forward-moving ECFA positive impact. When generally evaluating Co-opetition strategy, we clearly see the competition every corner between Taiwan and Korea. Specifically about time pressue we realized the reversal happened in the industries LCD flat panel and IC design which mainland China assures to catch up and surmount Taiwan in short future. Taiwan can not afford any hesitation and miss the narrow window of creating and capturing our own value in Co-opetition with mainland China. We worry as well Taiwan’s dilemma situation between USA, Japan and mainland China and strongly believe that the best strategy, in addition to the essence of Co-opetition is to harmonize the relationship with mainland China in all the possible areas. So that when facing global market, a win-win result can be expected, through Co-opetition central theme.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0102932428 |
| Creators | 魯永強, Lu, Yung Chiang |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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