Using a suite of high resolution models, the forecast skills of the superensemble for precipitation and 2-meter temperature over the continental United States and North America are shown. In this study, models and/or gridded fields such as the ETA, WRFARW, MM5, NDFD, several global models, and their ensemble mean are used. The final resolution for the multimodel superensemble is at 32 km at 3-hourly temporal intervals for temperature and ΒΌ degree daily intervals for precipitation. The forecast length is 60 hours for temperature and 5 days for precipitation. This study utilizes an optimization for the training length (number of days) to arrive at the best results. The period of the study includes March-September 2006. The metrics for the forecast evaluation include the mean absolute error, rms error, bias, and equitable threat scores. The results show a significant improvement of the multimodel superensemble compared to its member models and their ensemble mean. / A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. / Summer Semester, 2007. / June 12, 2007. / NWS, National Digital Forecast Database, MOS / Includes bibliographical references. / T. N. Krishnamurti, Professor Directing Thesis; Robert Hart, Committee Member; Paul Ruscher, Committee Member.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_182685 |
| Contributors | Van Dyke, Donald F. (authoraut), Krishnamurti, T. N. (professor directing thesis), Hart, Robert (committee member), Ruscher, Paul (committee member), Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (degree granting department), Florida State University (degree granting institution) |
| Publisher | Florida State University, Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English, English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, text |
| Format | 1 online resource, computer, application/pdf |
| Rights | This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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