Accurate forecasting of seasonal rainfall is important for many areas of commerce, including, but not limited to, agriculture, manufacturing, and power generation. There have been several studies addressing the predictability of rainfall variations over South America and the Amazon basin. The use of coupled atmospheric-ocean numerical models to predict these anomalies has had mixed results. A primary factor leading to model inaccuracy in precipitation forecasts is the coarse resolution data utilized by coupled models during the initialization phase. By using MERRA reanalysis and statistical downscaling along with the superensemble methodology, it is possible to obtain more precise forecasts of rainfall anomalies over tropical South America during austral fall. Selective inclusion (and exclusion) of superensemble member models also allows for increased accuracy. Improvement in individual member models is also possible on smaller spatial scales and in regions where substantial topographical changes were not handled well under original model initial conditions. The combination of downscaling and superensemble methodologies with other research methods presents the potential opportunity for increased accuracy not only in seasonal forecasts but on shorter temporal scales as well. / A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Science. / Summer Semester, 2012. / June 15, 2012. / Amazon, downscaling, monsoon, precipitation, South America, superensemble / Includes bibliographical references. / Paul Ruscher, Professor Directing Dissertation; Guosheng Liu, Committee Member; Vasu Misra, Committee Member.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_182934 |
| Contributors | Johnson, Bradford D. (authoraut), Ruscher, Paul (professor directing dissertation), Liu, Guosheng (committee member), Misra, Vasu (committee member), Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (degree granting department), Florida State University (degree granting institution) |
| Publisher | Florida State University, Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English, English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, text |
| Format | 1 online resource, computer, application/pdf |
| Rights | This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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