>Magister Scientiae - MSc / We review a number of compartmental models in epidemiology which leads to a
nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. We focus an SIR, SEIR and
SIS epidemic models with and without vaccination. A threshold parameter R0
is identified which governs the spread of diseases, and this parameter is known
as the basic reproductive number. The models have at least two equilibria, an
endemic equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium. We demonstrate that the disease will die out, if the basic reproductive number R0 < 1. This is the case of a disease-free state, with no infection in the population. Otherwise the disease may become endemic if the basic reproductive number R0 is bigger than unity. Furthermore, stability analysis for both endemic and disease-free steady states are investigated and we also give some numerical simulations. The second part of this dissertation deals with optimal vaccination strategy in epidemiology. We use optimal control technique on vaccination to minimize the impact of the disease. Hereby we mean minimizing the spread of the disease in the population, while also minimizing the effort on vaccination roll-out. We do this optimization for the cases of SIR and SEIR models, and show how optimal strategies can be obtained which minimize the damage caused by the infectious disease. Finally, we describe the numerical simulations using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uwc/oai:etd.uwc.ac.za:11394/3762 |
| Date | January 2010 |
| Creators | Nemaranzhe, Lutendo |
| Contributors | Witbooi, Peter J. |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | uwc |
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