Taiwan business indicators are announced by CEPD(Council For Economic Planning And Development) , and divided into three categories ¡V business monitoring indications, business expectation indicators and industrial business expectation survey. Business expectation indicators are further divided into the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and the Composite Index of Coincident Indicators.
Leading indicators, which are expected to forecast business cycles, are widely used to monitor or even predict the fluctuations of economic activities. They are also used to provide early signals of economic trend and, therefore, considered as a tool to adjust the government¡¦s economic policy.
CEPD use the compilation of the USA National Bureau of Economic Research as a reference for a long time, and has announced Taiwan¡¦s ex-business indicators since 1977 without making any revision in the past years, so they announced new business indicators in 2007. As we know, it is difficult to find the leading indicator to make the stable variable of predicting the business cycle, which raises doubts of whether the current leading indicators can done the work concisely.
CEPD make the indicators a little bit subjective because of considering government¡¦s policy and the meaning of containing widely economic fields and the convenience of static, so this research try to examine the effect of current seven leading indicators.
This thesis focuses on leading indicators to investigate how the seven components are related to the general economy. Composite Index of Leading Indicators is made up of seven indicators in order to predict the business cycle. The seven indicators include Index of export orders, Monetary aggregates, M1B, Stock prices index, Index of producer's inventory, Average monthly overtime in industry & services, Building permits, SEMI book ¡Vto¡Vbill ratio. In the purpose of getting more sample data, we take Industrial production index, one of coincident indicators announced by CEPD as the variable of current economy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0901109-135059 |
| Date | 01 September 2009 |
| Creators | Syu, Sheng-yuan |
| Contributors | Ming-Jang Weng, Ching-nun Lee, Tzyy-Wei Wang |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0901109-135059 |
| Rights | unrestricted, Copyright information available at source archive |
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