The purpose of this study was to explore whether macroeconomic prediction models (which incorporated firm specific, general economy, and industry predictor variables) could provide predictions which consistently have greater accuracy than management forecasts. / Management's forecasting ability was tested against forecasts of five prediction models which have been used by previous researchers. A sixth prediction model, the macroeconomic model, was also tested. / Each prediction model was generated using historical data up to the year of the management forecast. Forecasted amounts for the firm specific variable, GNP variable, and industry variables were inserted into the estimated forecasting models. / The forecasts from this double prediction process, along with those of management, were compared to the actual outcome by using the absolute percentage error. / Non-parametric statistical tests were used to test the null hypothesis of no difference in forecasting performance. / The empirical results of this inquiry showed little significant differences among the prediction models. However, management's forecasts were significantly more accurate than forecasts produced by any of the prediction models. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 43-02, Section: A, page: 0486. / Thesis (D.B.A.)--The Florida State University, 1982.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_74740 |
| Contributors | KEITH, RICHARD LYMAN., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 132 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
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