From the point of view of world, the positive results of the economic globalization are: more frequent scientific and technological exchange, more obvious international division, resource reach supreme utility. But, global economy integration, the abolition of the trade barrier, and improvement of capital mobility, have produced the serious economic problem in several areas. That is to say that this kind of laissez faire causes the international economic growth rate to be slow and large quantities of unemployment. Above-mentioned problems are very apt to happen in developing countries. A lot of economic construction of most developing countries has not been ripe yet .If they open trade and capital inflow rashly, in a situation that there is not any supplementary measure effectively, the economic development of this area is hindered because of being unable to bear the strong external pressure with assault probably .If more serious, it will also cause the terrible financial crisis.
From 1964 to 1988, Brazil implemented 20 several years governance of military affairs. During 20 several years governance of military affairs, Brazil had gone through the high economic growth rate. However, since 1974, the inflation of Brazil began to be accumulating constantly, the finance and account deficit frequently were serious day by day. The Brazilian government, in order to solve the problem, since 1980, limited the capital inflow. This policy made the development in economy slower, and the inflation problem was more serious. During elected president Fernando Collor de Mello was in power, from 1990, Brazilian government determined to return to the international capital market, and then economic became better. The open policy let the exchange rate appreciate, trade that accumulate, and lasting in debt of external and account deficit frequently. Brazil faced external pressure and impact once again. From 1994, Brazil was in power by new president Fernando Henrique Cardoso. In 1999, Brazilian government canceled the fixed exchange rate system of staring at U.S. dollar, and changed to adopt the floating exchange rate system. The exchange rate of Brazil was decided by market from then on.
Brazil faces the huge external pressure for a long time because of the impact of the economic globalization. A lot of countries have an optimistic view of the economic development in the future of Brazil very much. The reasons are: First, natural resources of Brazil are very abundant and enough to supply with the demand of the world; Second, Brazilian population reaches 180 millions, the huge market attracts various countries to be engaged in all kinds of trade and conduct of business. No matter from the past economic development or to the economic forecasting in the future, the economy of Brazil is closely linked with open economic policy. In other words, the imports, exports and capital mobility of Brazil have dominated the development in economy of Brazil. So, I use Balance-of-payments constrained growth rate model (BPCG model) of Thirlwall (1979) to analyze Brazilian economy. I set up adjusted BPCG model according to actual state of Brazil. I use cointegration test and estimate out the Brazilian imports and exports behavior equation, and then calculate primitive BPCG model and adjusted BPCG model.
Pointed out finally, the economic growth rate estimated out from the adjusted BPCG model is closer to Brazil's actual economic growth rate than the economic growth rate estimated out from the primitive BPCG model. This shows that some assumptions of primitive BPCG model do not accord with the real state of Brazil. Such as on long terms, comparative purchasing power parity is not to be hold. Imports and exports will correspond to out different price elasticity or substitution elasticity, if face different products or the price from the different areas. Thus, in the case of Brazil, the assumption of single price and single elasticity is not to be hold.
In general, the long-term economic growth rate estimated out in BPCG model roughly keeps the same with long-term real economic growth rate of Brazil. This result demonstrates that BPCG model is useful for analyzing export-led economic, and the result also supports Brazil to be an export-led economic growth country.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0717106-085117 |
| Date | 17 July 2006 |
| Creators | Zeng, Zhi-jun |
| Contributors | Jia-hsi Weng, Ming-Jang Weng, Frank Y. Ying |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0717106-085117 |
| Rights | not_available, Copyright information available at source archive |
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