We consider the problem of calculating tail probabilities of the returns of linear asset portfolios. As flexible and accurate model for the logarithmic returns we use the $t$-copula dependence structure and marginals following the generalized hyperbolic distribution. Exact calculation of the tail-loss probabilities is not possible and even simulation leads to challenging numerical problems. Applying a new numerical inversion method for the generation of the marginals and importance sampling with carefully selected mean shift we develop an efficient simulation algorithm. Numerical results for a variety of realistic portfolio examples show an impressive performance gain. (author´s abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:epub-wu-01_e4f |
| Date | January 2008 |
| Creators | Sak, Halis, Hörmann, Wolfgang, Leydold, Josef |
| Publisher | Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business |
| Source Sets | Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Paper, NonPeerReviewed |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Relation | http://epub.wu.ac.at/1200/ |
Page generated in 0.0021 seconds