In the first chapter of this dissertation, I exploit the Covid-19 pandemic and associated government restrictions as a natural experiment in order to study the resilience of businesses in the United States. I use a border-county identification strategy with data on government restrictions, employment and open small businesses, in order to assess the resilience of small businesses in the United States.
In my main results, I find negative impacts of stay-at-home orders on the number of open small merchants. In particular, shutdowns of businesses accelerated 8 weeks after imposition of a stay-at-home order, suggesting that many businesses were only resilient enough to handle adverse conditions for 8 weeks. On average, a county with a stay-at-home order experienced an additional 1.51 percentage points loss in the number of open small businesses, relative to January 2020, 8 weeks later compared to a neighboring county that did not have a stay-at-home order. Firms were quicker to resort to layoffs. On average a county with an active stay at home order in a month experienced an additional 1.19 percentage point loss in employment, relative to January 2020, the following month compared to a neighbor that did not have a stay-at-home order the previous month.
My results suggest that in future scenarios where governments consider enacting similar restrictions further aid is needed for businesses in order to help them stay afloat. In particular, more assistance should be delivered to businesses within two months from the enacting of the order. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study economic spillovers in the context of theCovid-19 associated government restrictions. I use a detailed geolocation dataset to construct data on the number of visitors per-capita between neighboring counties in the early stages of the pandemic, which I use as a proxy for economic spillovers. I employ a similar border-county identification strategy as in the first chapter to identify the causal effect of stay-at-home orders on inter-county movement.
Additionally, I provide evidence for an assumption used in chapter one by examining if there are reduced spillovers in county-pairs that lie in the different commute zones. I find that stay-at-home orders caused reductions in inter-county visits in both directions in a county-pair. That is, I find a decrease in travel from the county without a stay-at-home order to the county with one, as well as a decrease in the opposite direction. On average, a county that does not have stay-at-home order will receive 408 fewer weekly visitors from their neighboring county that has a stay-at-home order. I also examine the effect of stay-at-home orders on the ratio of travel between the two directions in order to find evidence of a net spillover effect between the two counties and fail to find evidence of a net spillover effect. I also find that spillover effects are indeed reduced in neighbor county-pairs where the two counties are in different commute zones.
The results of this paper imply that residents in counties with stay-at-home orders decreased travel to their neighboring counties even when those counties did not issue their own orders. In future situations where policy makers need to consider similar restrictions, they should focus on acting more quickly and not be concerned if neighboring counties are not cooperative.
In the third chapter of this dissertation, I test the predictions of career concerns models by studying Major League Baseball umpires. Major League Baseball games can be dramatically shaped by minor lapses in judgement from the umpires officiating the game. Due to the indefinite length a game may have, this can include having the game shaped in a way that ends it faster. I study whether evidence for the career concerns model can be found in baseball umpires. A career concerns model would suggest that older umpires, whose careers and reputations are much more established than younger ones, would be more inclined to improperly make judgements that favor the end of the game in extra innings. I use data on MLB umpires and extra-innings games from the 2010-2018 seasons to conduct my empirical analysis and use a linear probability model to isolate the impact of the umpires’ tenure on the probability they make a “bad call.”
I find evidence supporting the career concerns hypothesis and that the probability that an umpire makes a bad call that shortens the length of the game and allows them to go home increases with their tenure. I show that these results are likely driven by career concerns, rather than carelessness, by showing their error rate does not increase with tenure in situations where it would not reduce their workload.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:columbia.edu/oai:academiccommons.columbia.edu:10.7916/dqpb-4j88 |
| Date | January 2023 |
| Creators | Ahsan, Omar Hossain |
| Source Sets | Columbia University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Theses |
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