Using the monthly data between 1999 and 2007 in Taiwan, we examine the relationship of exchange rate, trade and capital flow in this paper. Granger causality test and impulse response from vector autoregressive model are employed to obtain the short-run dynamics among the variables, and Johansen cointegration test and error correction model are applied to study the long-run equilibrium. This paper reconfirms the J-curve effect in the short run and the validity of Marshall-Lerner condition in the long run. Our results also show the negative correlation of capital flow and the nominal effective exchange rate. Limited by the slow adjustment speed of trade balance, exchange rate and capital flow are the major drives back to equilibrium when the system deviates from the long-run equilibrium. Further, the capital flow variables are the leading indicators of the others in the most cases. However, different capital flow variables induce different patterns of dynamics in the short-run.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0813112-102018 |
| Date | 13 August 2012 |
| Creators | Tsai, Hsueh-fang |
| Contributors | Yung-nian Tung, Chun-chieh Wang, none |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0813112-102018 |
| Rights | user_define, Copyright information available at source archive |
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