The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/614733 |
| Date | 16 April 2016 |
| Creators | Mann, Michael E., Steinman, Byron A., Miller, Sonya K., Frankcombe, Leela M., England, Matthew H., Cheung, Anson H. |
| Contributors | Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute; Pennsylvania State University; University Park Pennsylvania USA, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory; University of Minnesota Duluth; Duluth Minnesota USA, Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute; Pennsylvania State University; University Park Pennsylvania USA, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales; Sydney New South Wales Australia, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales; Sydney New South Wales Australia, Department of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson Arizona USA |
| Publisher | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article |
| Rights | ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved |
| Relation | http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL068159 |
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