Historical changes in hydroclimatic characteristics in four Lower Colorado River sub-basins are examined using the Mann-Kendall test for trends and Kendall's tau-b test for statistical association to better understand the processes taking place in these arid watersheds. During the historical record of 1906-2007, in general, temperatures have increased and streamflows have decreased while there has been no change in precipitation. Streamflow was found to have statistical association with annual maximum temperatures, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using this knowledge, two-year and five-year streamflow predictions are made using climate data to force a statistical model. We find no predictive skill at the two-year range but significant (alpha =.05) predictive skill in two of the basins at the five-year range. The dominant climate predictor for the Paria River Basin is ENSO and for the Little Colorado River Basin it is temperature.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/144578 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Lambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringa |
| Contributors | Troch, Peter A, Garfin, Gregg, Gupta, Hoshin V |
| Publisher | The University of Arizona. |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis, text |
| Rights | Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. |
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