Hedge funds report performance information voluntarily. When they stop reporting they are transferred from the "live" pool of funds to the "defunct" pool. Consequently, liquidated funds constitute a subset of the defunct pool. I present models of hedge fund survival, attrition, and survivorship bias based on liquidation alone. This refines estimates of predictor variables in models of survival, leads to attrition rates of hedge funds to be roughly one half those previously thought, and produces larger estimates of survivorship bias. Survival models based on liquidated funds only, lead to an increase in survival time of 50 to 100 percent relative to survival based on all defunct funds. / In addition to refining estimates of survival time, it is useful to examine how the double fee structure of hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) affects the incentives of their managers. Young CTAs are usually very small --- they hold few financial assets --- and may not meet their operating expenses with their management fee alone, so their incentive is to take on risk and post good returns. As they grow, their incentive to take on risk diminishes. CTAs in their fifth year diminish their volatility by 25 percent relative to their first year, and diminish returns by 70 percent. We find CTAs to behave more like indexers as they grow, concerned with more with capital preservation than asset management. / Operational risk is a major cause of hedge fund and CTA liquidation. In the banking industry, regulators have called upon institutions to develop models for measuring capital charge for operational losses, and to subject these models to stress testing. Losses are found to be inversely related to GDP growth, and positively related to unemployment. Since losses are thus cyclical, one way to stress test models is to calculate capital charge during good and bad economic regimes. We find loss distributions to have thicker tails during bad regimes. One implication is that banks will likely need to increase their capital charge when economic conditions deteriorate.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:QMM.103290 |
| Date | January 2007 |
| Creators | Rouah, Fabrice. |
| Publisher | McGill University |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Coverage | Doctor of Philosophy (Desautels Faculty of Management.) |
| Rights | © Fabrice Rouah, 2007 |
| Relation | alephsysno: 002665900, proquestno: AAINR38640, Theses scanned by UMI/ProQuest. |
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