In connection to the process of financialization of commodity markets which is caused by the sharp increase of money flowing into the commodity markets, the question of which factors affect commodity and commodity indices prices is discussed. The aim of the dissertation is to determine and quantify the factors affecting the prices of industrial metals during the period of financialization of commodity markets and derive the pricing model of industrial metals, which would be able to generate signals of a possible overvaluation or undervaluation. The paper examined non-ferrous industrial metals traded on the Commodity Exchange LME (London Metal Exchange), namely aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. These metals are also included in the most of the world's composite commodity indices. The dissertation analyzes the contemporary developments in commodity markets; relationship between the price volatility and fundamental factors (including production, consumption and stocks of chosen metals and a wide range of macroeconomic determinants) or the relationship between risk and return of industrial metals. The closing part of the dissertation focuses on the creating of composite pricing indicator for copper and tin by using the Boosted Trees method. The results obtained in the research show that created indicator is able to explain the volatility of the 3m copper futures contracts by 94.25% and 3m futures contracts of tin by 96, 79% in the period from 1/2000 to 3/2015.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:263391 |
| Date | January 2016 |
| Creators | Smolík, Kamil |
| Contributors | Kulhánek, Lumír, Myšková, Renáta, Rozmahel, Petr, Rejnuš, Oldřich |
| Publisher | Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | Czech |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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