En esta tesis, se utilizan t ecnicas matem atico-epidemiol ogicas para modelar el
rendimiento acad emico en Espa~na (prestando especial atenci on en el fracaso escolar) para comprender mejor los mecanismos detr as de esta importante cuesti on, as
como para predecir c omo evolucionar an los resultados acad emicos en el Bachillerato espa~nol en los pr oximos a~nos. El nivel educativo de Bachillerato en Espa~na
est a formado por los dos ultimos cursos antes de acceder a la universidad o al
mercado de trabajo y corresponde a los estudiantes de 16 18 a~nos. Este nivel
educativo es muy importante para la formaci on de los estudiantes ya que representa un periodo en el que deber an tomar importantes decisiones sobre el futuro
acad emico y profesional.
En primer lugar, en el Cap tulo 2, se presenta un modelo determinista donde se
analiza el rendimiento acad emico asumiendo que la actitud negativa de los alumnos
de Bachillerato puede ser debida a su comportamiento aut onomo y la in
uencia de
compa~neros con malos resultados acad emicos. Luego, en el Cap tulo 3, se mejora el
modelo basado en la idea de que no s olo los malos h abitos acad emicos se transmiten
socialmente sino tambi en los buenos h abitos de estudio. Adem as, descomponemos
los par ametros de transmisi on de h abitos acad emicos con el n de analizar con
m as detalle qu e grupos de estudiantes son m as susceptibles a ser in
uenciados
por compa~neros con buenos o malos h abitos acad emicos. El abandono escolar
tambi en han sido incluido en este modelo. El enfoque adoptado permite proporcionar predicciones deterministas y con intervalos de con anza de la evoluci on del
rendimiento escolar (incluyendo las tasas de abandono) en Bachillerato en Espa~na
en los pr oximos a~nos. Este enfoque, adem as, nos permite modelar el rendimiento
acad emico en otros niveles educativos del sistema acad emico espa~nol o de fuera
de Espa~na tal y como se muestra en el Cap tulo 4, donde el modelo se aplica satisfactoriamente al sistema acad emico actual de la regi on alemana de Renania del
Norte-Westfalia.
Para concluir esta tesis, proporcionamos una estimaci on de los costes relacionados
con el rendimiento acad emico espa~nol basado en nuestras predicciones. Esta estimaci on representa la inversi on en Bachillerato por parte del Gobierno espa~nol y las
familias en los pr oximos a~nos, con especial atenci on en los grupos de estudiantes
que no promocionan y abandonan en los diferentes cursos acad emicos. / In this dissertation, we use epidemiologic-mathematical techniques to model the
academic performance in Spain (paying special attention on the academic underachievement)
to understand better the mechanisms behind this important issue
as well as to predict how academic results will evolve in the Spanish Bachillerato
over the next few years. The Spanish Bachillerato educational level is made up
of the last courses before accessing to the university or to the work market and
corresponds to students of 16¿18 years old. This educational level is a milestone
in the career training of students because it represents a period to make important
decisions about academic and professional future.
In a rst step, in the Chapter 2 we will present a deterministic model where
academic performance is analyzed assuming the negative attitude of Bachillerato
students may be due to their autonomous behavior and the in
uence of classmates
with bad academic results. Then, in the Chapter 3, the model is improved based on
the idea that not only the bad academic habits are socially transmitted but also the
good study habits. Besides, we decompose the transmission academic habits into
good and bad academic habits, in order to analyze with more detail which group of
students are more susceptible to be in
uenced by good or bad academic students.
The consideration of quantifying the abandon rates is also a new issue dealt with in
it. The adopted approach allow to provide both punctual and con dence intervals
predictions to the evolution of academic performance (including the abandon rates)
in Bachillerato in Spain over the next few years. The adopted approach allows us
to model academic performance in academic levels other than Bachillerato and/or
beyond the Spanish academic system. This issue is assessed in Chapter 4, where
the model is satisfactorily applied to the current academic system of the German
region of North Rhine-Westphalia.
To conclude this dissertation, we provide an estimation of the cost related to the
Spanish academic underachievement based on our predictions. This estimation
represents the investment in the Spanish Bachillerato from the Spanish Government
and families over the next few years, paying special attention on the groups
of students who do not promote and abandon during their corresponding academic
year. / Sánchez Sánchez, A. (2013). Modelling the evolution dynamics of the academic performance in high school in Spain. Probabilistic predictions of future trends and their economical consequences [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/32280
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:upv.es/oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/32280 |
| Date | 23 September 2013 |
| Creators | Sánchez Sánchez, Almudena |
| Contributors | Cortés López, Juan Carlos, Santonja Gómez, Francisco José, Villanueva Micó, Rafael Jacinto, Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada - Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada |
| Publisher | Universitat Politècnica de València |
| Source Sets | Universitat Politècnica de València |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| Source | Riunet |
| Rights | http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/, info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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