Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Western Cape Province in South Africa is home to one of the most diverse plant
communities in the world, and has one of the highest concentrations of plants species in any
temperate ecosystem in the world. The dominant vegetation is both fire-prone and fire-dependant
(Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). The Western Cape in particular is emerging as a
province that is increasingly prone to disaster events, particularly the threat of veld fires. The
consequences of large wildfire disaster events are often devastating and far reaching (Van
Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). This study was conducted in an attempt to investigate
the drivers of wildfire behaviour, severity and magnitude in the Limietberg Conservation Area in
order to gain a greater insight and understanding of the complexity of wildfire risk. Recognising
the disaster prone character of the Western Cape and the increasing probabilities of future
wildfire events in the province, this study aimed to strengthen the understanding of the drivers of
wildland fire behaviour (i.e. wildland fire risk) in the Limietberg Conservation Area by analysing
a number of fires to identify a range of drivers and patterns; examining the factors driving both
fire danger and fire behaviour, including climate, topography, slope and fuel; examining the
factors driving fire frequency and regime; and finally, determining possible ecological damage
caused by the last 10 – 20 years of wildfire events in the Limietberg Conservation Area as
measured by post-fire seedling ratios. This was achieved through the use of statistical techniques
including multiple regression (McDonald 2009), ordination in the form of principal component
analysis and non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994), and fieldwork in
the form of post-fire regeneration (Proteaceae parent:seedling ratio) monitoring techniques
(Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). The results indicated that the
interactions between factors driving fire danger and fire behaviour were indeed complex, being
influenced mainly by meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed) but
also quite strongly influenced by physical environmental factors (slope, topography). The use of
ordination techniques in this sort of complex analysis was seen as extremely effective and its use
in further fire research was strongly recommended. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Wes-Kaap provinsie in Suid-Afrika is die tuiste van een van die mees diverse plant
gemeenskappe in die wêreld, en het een van die hoogste konsentrasies van plantspesies in enige
gematigde ekosisteem in die wêreld. Die dominante plantegroei is beide vuur geneig en vuurafhanklik
(Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Die Wes-Kaap in die besonder is
opkomende as 'n provinsie wat toenemend geneig is tot ramp gebeure, veral die bedreiging van
veldbrande. Die gevolge van groot veldbrand rampgebeure is dikwels verwoestend en verreikend
(Van Wilgen & Scott 2001, Forsyth et al. 2010). Hierdie studie is uitgevoer in 'n poging om die
oorsake van veldbrande, die gedrag, erns en omvang daarvan in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied
vir groter insig en begrip van die kompleksiteit van veldbrand risiko te ondersoek. Hierdie studie
erken die rampgeneigdheid van die Wes-Kaap en die toenemende waarskynlikheid van
toekomstige veldbrande in die provinsie. Dit het ten doel gehad om die oorsake van veldvuur
gedrag (bv. brand risiko) in die Limietberg Bewaringsgebied deur die ontleding van 'n aantal
brande se oorsake en patrone te identifiseer; die ondersoek van faktore wat beide brandgevaar en
vuurgedrag, bepaal insluitend klimaat, topografie, helling en brandstof; die ondersoek van
faktore wat vuur frekwensie en regime; en uiteindelik die bepaling van moontlike ekologiese
skade veroorsaak deur die laaste 10 - 20 jaar van veldbrand gebeure in die Limietberg
Bewaringsgebied, soos gemeet deur navuur saailing verhoudings. Die doel is bereik deur die
gebruik van statistiese tegnieke waaronder meervoudige regressie (McDonald 2009), ordening in
die vorm van hoofkomponent analise en multi-dimensionele skaling (Clarke & Warwick 1994),
en veldwerk in die vorm van navuur herlewing (Proteaceae ouer:saailing verhouding)
moniteringstegnieke (Bond et al. 1984; Vlok & Yeaton 2000; De Klerk et al. 2007). Die resultate
dui daarop dat die interaksies tussen faktore wat brandgevaar en vuurgedrag inderdaad kompleks
aandryf is en hoofsaaklik beïnvloed word deur meteorologiese veranderlikes (temperatuur,
relatiewe humiditeit, windspoed), maar ook baie sterk beïnvloed word deur fisiese
omgewingsfaktore (helling, topografie). Die gebruik van ordeningstegnieke vir hierdie
komplekse tipe analise is bevind as uiters effektief en die gebruik daarvan in verdere vuur
navorsing word sterk aanbeveel.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/95810 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Moir, Shaun Alexander |
| Contributors | De Klerk, Helen, Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Geography and Environmental Studies. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 88 p. : ill., maps |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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