M.Ing. (Engineering Management) / Capital intensive engineering projects involve the flow of large sums of money over the project life. During the pretender phase of the project, estimates of the forecast cash flow and associate return on investment are made based on certain assumptions which at the time are, at best, only informed guesses. As the project progresses, the uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and the timing of these cash flows and rate of return, diminishes. By recognising the time value of money and the importance of the synthesis of time and cash flow as well as the interdependence of project activities, it is desirable to obtain an estimate of the PROBABLE outcome of the return on investment~ should the bid be accepted. This outcome can only be 'guessed' at by means of a probabilistic analysis of the parameters that go to make up the nett cash flow. This study is an attempt to find a model suitable for use in the construction industry which accurately describes the construction process, and presents an overall analysis of the variation in the rate of return as a result of the probabilistic nature of the original parameters. Various models were investigated. All were found suitable under limited conditions.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uj/uj:4641 |
| Date | 03 April 2014 |
| Creators | Cheney, Peter Vincent |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | University of Johannesburg |
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