This study critically examines the (UHI) effect in urban and suburban neighbourhoods of Quito, Ecuador, over a 19-year period, focusing on the interplay between atmospheric pollution and urban/ suburban temperature. Utilizing Empirical Dynamic Modeling(EDM) and Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM), this study dives into the nonlinear dynamics of environmental factors, a method that traditional linear models fail to address effectively.The results unveil a consistent and strong positive correlation across various neighbourhoods, with temperature fluctuations indicating a typical UHI effect. This is most noticeable in urbanized areas where the temperature is significantly higher due to dense infrastructure and reduced greenery, a pattern that diminishes as one moves towards the outskirts. Specifically, pollutants like PM2.5 exhibit a non-uniform positive correlation, suggesting their collective increase or decrease across different regions, whereas CO shows a very slight and inconsistent inverse relationship across locations. The causal analysis further substantiates a significant interaction between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature, with the data revealing a reciprocal predictive capacity between these variables. The CCM analysis, through its graphical representation of predictive skills, confirms the causal effect of PM2.5 on urban temperature, marking an essential contribution to understanding the UHI effect and its implications for urban environmental dynamics. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the UHI phenomenon, highlighting the intricate relationship between urbanization, atmospheric pollution, and climate. The findings emphasize the necessity for urban planning and policy to consider these complex interactions to mitigate the effects of climate change on urban environments.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:du-48507 |
| Date | January 2024 |
| Creators | Ereminaite, Marija, Jayasinghe, Yasas |
| Publisher | Högskolan Dalarna, Mikrodataanalys |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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