This study has focused on exploring how climate change, specifically increasing temperatures, impact the cooling demand in buildings on the island of Gotland. Cooling is a necessity for the wellbeing of people, where extreme heat, as a consequence of climate change, can lead to increased mortality. Increased cooling can also cause stress on the electricity grid and its technical components. While there are some previous studies regarding cooling, overall research and data is relatively lacking. Explorative scenarios were used as methods. Four scenarios based on different cooling assumptions on Gotland were explored for the years 2050 and 2090, as well as comparing them to a base year of 2020. The cooling demand for the different scenarios was based on two different projections of increased temperatures, using the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; a generalised energy consumption of space cooling in different residential and nonresidential buildings; and the current floor area of Gotland. The result showed an increasing demand of cooling on Gotland, although the demand varied greatly depending on scenario. The result also briefly analyses the last heatwave in 2018, as well as the impact of two other climate variables of increased temperatures, namely Tropical days and length of heatwaves (Heatwave days). Observed climate variables from 2018 also deviate more much more than the projection of climate variables in the future. Only RCP 8.5 Tropical days for 2090 shows a greater number than the observed data of 2018, showing that deviating warmer years can happen and impact already now. The study concludes that further research is needed on the topic, but that clear trends of increased cooling demand can be seen.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-532872 |
| Date | January 2024 |
| Creators | Åkerlund, Maja |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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