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Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications

In this thesis I offer new results on how we can acquire, reward, and use accurate predictions of future events. Some of these results are entirely theoretical, improving our understanding of strictly proper scoring rules (Chapter 3), and expanding strict properness to include cost functions (Chapter 4). Others are more practical, like developing a practical cost function for the [0, 1] interval (Chapter 5), exploring how to design simple and informative prediction markets (Chapter 6), and using predictions to make decisions (Chapter 7). / Engineering and Applied Sciences

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:harvard.edu/oai:dash.harvard.edu:1/11181140
Date18 October 2013
CreatorsRuberry, Michael Edward
ContributorsChen, Yiling
PublisherHarvard University
Source SetsHarvard University
Languageen_US
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis or Dissertation
Rightsopen

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