Road crashes pose a significant public health issue worldwide, often leading to severe injuries and fatalities. This dissertation embarks on a comprehensive examination of the factors affecting road crash severity, with a special focus on older drivers and the unique challenges introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing a dataset from Virginia, USA, the research integrates advanced statistical methods and machine learning techniques to dissect this critical issue from multiple angles.
The initial study within the dissertation employs multilevel ordinal logistic regression to assess crash severity among older drivers, revealing the complex interplay of various factors such as crash type, road attributes, and driver behavior. It highlights the increased risk of severe crashes associated with head-on collisions, driver distraction or impairment, and the non-use of seat belts, specifically affecting older drivers. These findings are pivotal in understanding the unique vulnerabilities of this demographic on the road.
Furthermore, the dissertation explores the efficacy of both parametric and non-parametric machine learning models in predicting crash severity. It emphasizes the innovative use of synthetic resampling techniques, particularly random over-sampling examples (ROSE) and synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE), to address class imbalances. This methodological advancement not only improves the accuracy of crash severity predictions for severe crashes but also offers a comprehensive understanding of diverse factors, including environmental and roadway characteristics.
Additionally, the dissertation examines the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on road safety, revealing a paradoxical decrease in overall traffic crashes accompanied by an increase in the rate of severe injuries. This finding underscores the pandemic's transformative effect on driving behaviors and patterns, heightening risks for vulnerable road users like pedestrians and cyclists. The study calls for adaptable road safety strategies responsive to global challenges and societal shifts.
Collectively, the studies within this dissertation contribute substantially to transportation safety research. They demonstrate the complex nature of factors influencing crash severity and the efficacy of tailored approaches in addressing these challenges. The integration of advanced statistical methods with machine learning techniques offers a profound understanding of crash dynamics and sets a new benchmark for future research in transportation safety. This dissertation underscores the evolving challenges in road safety, especially amidst demographic shifts and global crises, and advocates for adaptive, evidence-based strategies to enhance road safety for all, particularly vulnerable groups like the older drivers. / Doctor of Philosophy / Road crashes are a major concern worldwide, often leading to serious injuries and loss of life. This dissertation delves into the critical issue of road crash severity, with a special focus on older drivers and the challenges brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on data from Virginia, USA, the research combines cutting-edge statistical methods and machine learning to shed light on this pressing matter.
One important part of the research focuses on older drivers. It uses advanced analysis to find out why crashes involving this group might be more serious. The study discovered that situations like head-on collisions, driver distraction or impairment, and not wearing seat belts greatly increase the risk for older drivers. Understanding these risks is crucial in identifying the special needs of older drivers on the road.
Then, the study explores the power of machine learning in predicting crash severity. Here, the research stands out by using innovative techniques to balance out the data, leading to more accurate predictions. This part of the study not only improves our understanding of what leads to severe crashes but also highlights how different environmental and road factors play a role.
Following this, the research looks at how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted road safety. Interestingly, while the overall number of crashes went down during the pandemic, the rate of severe injuries in the crashes that occurred increased. This suggests that the pandemic changed driving behaviors, posing increased risks especially to pedestrians and cyclists.
In summary, this dissertation offers valuable insights into the complex factors affecting road crash severity. It underscores the importance of using advanced analysis techniques to understand these dynamics better, especially in the face of demographic changes and global challenges like the pandemic. The findings are not just academically significant; they provide practical guidance for policymakers and road safety experts to develop strategies that make roads safer for everyone, particularly older drivers.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/118133 |
| Date | 23 February 2024 |
| Creators | Alrumaidhi, Mubarak S. M. S. |
| Contributors | Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rakha, Hesham A., Hotle, Susan, Farag, Mohamed, Heaslip, Kevin Patrick |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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