This paper develops a series of Early Warning System models for debt crises. This paper uses a Debt Pressure index to define crisis periods and then demonstrates how one can go about trying to forecast these periods using Logit and Markov-switching Models. An alternative approach, whereby ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to create Early Warning System models, is introduced. A graphical analysis is also conducted. Three useful Early Warning System models emerge from this study.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:wits/oai:wiredspace.wits.ac.za:10539/12726 |
| Date | 15 May 2013 |
| Creators | Ramos, Nicole Diana |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
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