Return to search

Predicting Stock Market Crises by VAR Model

There are several methods to predict financial crises. There are also several types of indicators used by financial institutions. These indicators, which are estimated in different ways, often show various developments, although it is not possible to directly assess which is the most suitable. Here, we still try to find what characteristics that industry group has and forecast financial crises
In this paper, our data started from monthly of 1977 January to 2008 December in S&P100. We consider Fama-French and Cluster Analysis to process data to make data with same characteristic within a group. Then, we use GARCH type models and apply it to VaR predicting stock turmoil.
In conclusion, we found that the group which has high kurtosis value is the key factor for predicting stock crises instead of volatility. Moreover, the characteristics of this industry which can predict stock crises is a great scale. On the other hand, we can through this model to double check the reaction for anticipating. Therefore, people can do some actions to control risk to reduce the loss.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0623112-002029
Date23 June 2012
CreatorsYang, Han-Chih
ContributorsKuo,Hsiou-jen, Huang,Jen-Jsung, Wang, Chou-Wen, Lee,Chien-Chiang
PublisherNSYSU
Source SetsNSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
Formatapplication/pdf
Sourcehttp://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0623112-002029
Rightsuser_define, Copyright information available at source archive

Page generated in 0.0021 seconds