This thesis consists of three chapters, each dealing with a different aspect of the impact of climate change on agriculture: the analysis of past evidence, the possible new solutions and the anticipation of future problems. The topics chosen are different but complementary and reflect the complex and multifaceted impact of this phenomenon on agriculture. This work uses global spatial data and information from the literature, combines weather forecast with a crop model, and uses an economic model coupled with robust econometric estimation approaches. The findings indicate that major crop yields in tropical and subtropical regions will likely suffer adverse effects, while temperate and continental areas, historically less favourable for agriculture, may experience mainly positive impacts. Under a medium development scenario, global crop production is projected to remain largely unaffected, masking a compensatory mechanism between tropical and temperate regions. Adaptation covers a significant positive role, and short- and medium-range weather forecasting can be an important and affordable tool for farmers to adapt their agricultural practices, if they know how to use it. The adoption of such meteorological information can enable rural households in developing countries to increase yields of staple crops, although the potential contribution of it may be hampered by social and economic barriers. However, adaptation in agriculture can have negative externalities, potentially creating a vicious circle, and the livestock sector is particularly vulnerable. Indeed, changing climate conditions may induce farmers to adjust the distribution of grazing livestock per unit of land in order to maximise profits. Temperate and continental countries may increase the number of grazing livestock per unit of land as climatic conditions improve for agricultural purposes, thereby increasing carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, tropical areas, mainly populated by developing countries, will see a deterioration of agricultural conditions and less livestock can be raised on rangelands and pasturelands. Once again, countries with pressing agricultural productivity needs bear a disproportionate burden of climate change effects, exacerbating already precarious living conditions. Conversely, northern countries, primarily developed, are likely to experience more beneficial effects.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:unitn.it/oai:iris.unitn.it:11572/407889 |
| Date | 23 April 2024 |
| Creators | Parissi, Niccolò |
| Contributors | Parissi, Niccolò, Raffaelli, Roberta, Fezzi, Carlo |
| Publisher | Università degli studi di Trento, place:TRENTO |
| Source Sets | Università di Trento |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Relation | firstpage:1, lastpage:125, numberofpages:125 |
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