The fluctuation of the world economy has a tremendous influence to domestic imports and exports to a small opened economy. In another word, it has great impact to the current account of a small opened economy. After the 1980s, Taiwan relies on the growth of net export to drive its economy growth, showing that depend on to foreign trade degree quite high, so government values the current account very much. With the economic variables of the region of America, Asia, and Europe to carry on regional study the relation with the current account of Taiwan, the relevant parameter included in this research is that foreign production value, domestic production value, real effective of exchange rate, and real interest rate differential of domestic and international. Utilize structural vector autoregressive model, with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions analysis result, to consider each variable in short-run and long-run to the current account of influence.
According to impulse response functions, it synthesizes three regional analysis results, the current account accord with the theories with the relevant parameter. The foreign production value increases to cause the current account increment. The domestic production value increases to cause the current account reduced and converge in the long-run. The real effective of exchange rate increases to cause the current account surplus in the short-run, the impulsive effect is convergence in the long-run. The real interest rate differential increases to cause the current account deficit in the short-run.
According to forecast error variance decompositions, the current account is influence by the real effective of exchange rate and itself factor in three regions, in addition the influence by the foreign production value in the region of America and Asia. In the region of America and Asia, the current account receives self influence that decreases progressively at time changes that part substitutes by the foreign production value. Under the long-run, the foreign production value in the region of America and Asia is also influence by the current account because imports and exports of Taiwan are in the majority that the main country comes from America and Asia, that the production value of regions are easier to cause the current account. The current account always causes by the real effective of exchange rate in the long-run. Accord with Shirvani and Wilbratte (1997), the real exchange rate has the long-run relational with the current account in real example analysis. In the short-run, the exchange rate depreciation has not influenced the result to the current account. In the long-run, the depreciation can improve the current account to become surplus.
This research discovers to influence the factor of the current account of Taiwan, in the region of America and Asia, the foreign production value makes the phenomenon with the current account surplus in the long-run. In the region of American, Asia, and Europe, the real effective of exchange rate increases to make the phenomenon with the current account surplus in the long-run, the current account receives self influence no matter under short-run and long-run. In the short-run, the influence of the current account results negative direction and oscillation to convergence.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0726105-152205 |
| Date | 26 July 2005 |
| Creators | Pan, Shang-yi |
| Contributors | Yung-Hsiang Ying, Ming-jang Weng, Jia-hsi Weng |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0726105-152205 |
| Rights | withheld, Copyright information available at source archive |
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