The mobile operators face the problem that the users how to transfer from 2G to 3G as well as telecommunication policy has been opened by government¡F mobile number protablility¡Bthe new 3G competitor¡¦s entry as to result in unexpected revenue in Taiwan. However, the new 3G competitor¡As entry with the great impact on TWM, then the actual utility is lower of TWM. The study is exploring for ¡yThe effect on subscribers diffusion 3G mobile optrator dynamic decision effect on¡z, because the property of problem is high order¡Bnonlinear¡Btime delay, the traditional approach lacking of quantifying basis such as Case Study which cannot simulate the consequence of feasible policy. It cannot estimate what becomes of the solution, thus apt to making wrong decision. Others mathematics approachs cannot explain the dynamic essence of the practical problem. All these approaches are linear and static as linear programing¡BQueuing Theory¡B Monte Carlo Simulation that cannot solve the high order¡Bdynamic problem. These approaches are no usefulness in solving practical management problem. However, System Dynamics is able to solve the dynamic complexity problem that trough the steps of problem description¡B boundary definition¡Bsystem model constructing¡B model testing and simulation to understand the structure and behavior of problem, moreover, to do policy design and evaluation.
This study is as system dynamics approach on the foundation of BASS diffusion model and constructing model upon the 3G adoption critical factor in the viewpoint of Theory of Planed Behavior. The objective of study is to construct the diffusion model of TWM subscribers upon system dynamics, then to seek the leading loop and high leverage of behavior through scenario analysis for consultation in policy design.
The conclusion of study as following¡]1¡^if the operators take high allowance of GSM handset bundling contract sales, will trun up¡yThe self-limit to growing¡z. When the price competition between operators in the market, the policy will cause that TWM 3G actual subscribers are lower. The best revenue policy is to shorten GSM contract duration by handset price or ceasing GSM bundling contract sales schedule to be advanced.¡]2¡^If all the operators do not do the competition in price aggressively in oligopoly, the relationship between competitors will result in¡yThe rich more rich and the poor more poor¡z. The best revenue policy for operator is the tariff shall be divided into different stages to co-operate with network load and to acquire high data usage subscribers for the goal. It shall reduce the threshold of customer entry for the sake of increasing subscribers in the middle stage. There is an obvious discrenpancy between the best policy in simulation and operator taking. ¡]3¡^If the operators attempt to shorten the timetable of subscribers from GSM transfer to 3G as to shorten GSM contract duration, the network constructing policy should do dynamic policy co-operation with the leading indicator of subscribers diffusion. The scenario simulation upon system dynamics that the counter-intuitive phenomenon often contrasts to the operator¡¦s preconception, avoiding to the confined thinking in policy design.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0713107-155822 |
| Date | 13 July 2007 |
| Creators | Guei, Yung |
| Contributors | Liu Pin-Yang, Tu Yi-Min, Wei-Yang Wang |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0713107-155822 |
| Rights | not_available, Copyright information available at source archive |
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