The objective of this thesis was to examine the validity of the Export-Led Growth
(ELG) hypothesis in nine Southern African countries using annual data for the period
1980-2002. The thesis used time series econometric techniques to test for the causal
linkage between exports and economic growth in Southern Africa. Dynamic econometric
models were estimated to test for time series properties: unit root (ADF and PP tests), cointegration
(Johansens procedure), and Granger-causality (Likelihood Ratio test-LR).
The results of the unit root tests show that most of the series are stationary in first
differences (series in levels have unit rootI(1)). Co-integration and causality between
exports and economic growth were tested and compared using two types of bi-variate
vector autoregressive models: models without exogenous variables VAR (p), and models
with exogenous variables VARX (p, b). The results of the co-integration tests on both
types of bi-variate models show that all three Granger-causality alternative models fit the
ELG study for Southern Africa (stationary models; integrated but not co-integrated
models; and Error Correction Models).
In both types of models, the direction of causation (unidirectional or bidirectional)
between GDP and exports was tested using a SUR system of equations by computing the
LR test. Without exogenous variables, the ELG hypothesis is found to be valid in Lesotho
and Swaziland, and, with exogenous variables, it is valid in Botswana, Lesotho, and
Swaziland, implying that expanding exports can contribute to economic growth, poverty
reduction, and job creation in all three countries. This research reveals that, even though
most countries have adopted export-friendly policies, the long-term impact of such
policies is yet to be observed for most countries.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LSU/oai:etd.lsu.edu:etd-04072006-114156 |
| Date | 10 April 2006 |
| Creators | Sinoha-Lopete, Ramona |
| Contributors | Roger Hinson, P. Lynn Kennedy, Hector O. Zapata |
| Publisher | LSU |
| Source Sets | Louisiana State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-04072006-114156/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached herein a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to LSU or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below and in appropriate University policies, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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