This study develops a model of the energy sector of the Brazilian economy to provide a framework for planning and assessing energy policy The increased cost of petroleum imports--a commodity critically needed for maintaining planned growth and development--has caused severe economic distortions and balance of payments difficulties for Brazil. The complexity of these problems makes assessment of the potential impact of compensatory policy measures a difficult task The objective of this work is to assist the policy-maker or researcher by providing a general structural model for forecasting energy demand and evaluating alternative energy scenarios in terms of their effects on balance of payments and external debt The energy demand forecasting model takes economic and demographic data as inputs and generates as outputs the energy requirements of each of several energy sectors or sources. This input-output model is developed to establish the correspondence between output and energy consumption for each of sixteen economic sectors. The energy requirements of the optimal solution of the I-O model can then be compared with the energy supply and economic growth assumptions of the Brazilian government Additionally, this report analyzes the economic implications of changing the energy-mix in Brazil by substituting domestic energy sources for imported oil For each supply scenario the costs of oil imports and investment in the energy sector are introduced into the balance of payments and the external debt accounts to determine their impact The illustrative examples of this work suggest that in a ten-year period a Brazilian government committed to policies encouraging the development and use of domestic energy sources may be able to meet its growing foreign exchange expenses for oil while simultaneously improving the living standard of its population / acase@tulane.edu
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TULANE/oai:http://digitallibrary.tulane.edu/:tulane_27168 |
| Date | January 1980 |
| Contributors | Menezes, Jose Marcus Cavalcanti De (Author) |
| Publisher | Tulane University |
| Source Sets | Tulane University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | Access requires a license to the Dissertations and Theses (ProQuest) database., Copyright is in accordance with U.S. Copyright law |
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