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Developing an Early Warning System for Intrastate Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Intrastate conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa are a development tragedy and a security dilemma that requires more prevention and better intervention from the international community. Such engagement necessitates a robust early warning system, which can determine, with a sufficient degree of accuracy, the countries most at risk of experiencing intrastate conflict. This research summarizes and critiques current efforts to conceptualize intrastate conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa and determine what factors best explain the likelihood of intrastate conflict onset. The research examines the challenges of empirically modelling the human behaviour that underlies intrastate conflict, as well as some promising avenues for overcoming challenges posed by data issues and existing methodological shortcomings. The research concludes that with improved data and research design, and more attention being paid to how statistical significance reflects pathway(s) to violence, the development of an intrastate conflict early warning system is possible.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:NSHD.ca#10222/13564
Date29 April 2011
CreatorsPerryman, Benjamin
Source SetsLibrary and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish

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