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Previous issue date: 2016-05-24 / Tendo como motiva??o a discuss?o que vem se desenvolvendo ao longo dos ?ltimos anos acerca da evolu??o da ind?stria brasileira e seus impactos sobre a trajet?ria de crescimento econ?mico do pa?s, nesta disserta??o tivemos como objetivo realizar uma an?lise de simula??o acerca do efeito da implementa??o de uma suposta pol?tica industrial sobre o potencial de desempenho do setor industrial e da economia brasileira no per?odo de 2016-2025. Para dar suporte a esse estudo, desenvolvemos um modelo formal macroecon?mico voltado para proje??o, aqui constru?do a partir de Louren?o e Roos (2015) e dos principais desenvolvimentos te?ricos recentes do modelo de crescimento sob restri??o externa. A simula??o do desempenho da ind?stria e da economia brasileira foi gerada no ?mbito de tr?s diferentes cen?rios, todos condicionados ao atual modelo de gest?o da pol?tica macroecon?mica do pa?s. O Cen?rio 1 representa o desdobramento esperado dos eventos econ?micos na aus?ncia de qualquer pol?tica industrial adicional. No Cen?rio 2, inclu?mos a suposi??o de que, a partir de 2016, o governo implementa uma pol?tica industrial via redu??o da al?quota tribut?ria do setor para 0%. Por fim, no Cen?rio 3 adotamos a suposi??o de que opera uma pol?tica industrial que n?o se manifesta pela mudan?a da al?quota tribut?ria, mas sim por mecanismos de seletividade de cr?dito, pol?tica comercial, cient?fica, tecnol?gica etc., os quais geram um aumento anual de 1,0 ponto percentual no peso das exporta??es industriais no total das exporta??es, e uma redu??o de mesmo ponto percentual no peso das importa??es do referido setor no total das importa??es. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a implementa??o de uma pol?tica industrial do tipo especificamente considerado no Cen?rio 3, bem como uma mudan?a no atual modelo de gest?o da pol?tica macroecon?mica se fazem importantes para alavancar o crescimento econ?mico brasileiro; caso contr?rio, o pa?s seguir? apresentando baixas taxas de crescimento. / Having as motivation the discussion that has been developing over the past few years about the development of the Brazilian industry and its impacts on the trajectory of economic growth, in this dissertation we aimed perform a simulation analysis on the effect of the implementation of a supposed industrial policy on the potential performance of the industrial sector and the Brazilian economy in the 2016-2025 period. To give support to this study, we developed a formal macroeconomic model oriented to projection, built here from Louren?o and Roos (2015) and the main recent theoretical developments of the growth model under external constraint. The simulation of industry performance and the Brazilian economy was generated under three different scenarios, all conditioned to the current macroeconomic policy management model of the country. The Scenario 1 represent the expected development of economic events in the absence of any further industrial policy. In Scenario 2, we included the assumption that, from 2016, the government implements an industrial policy by reducing to 0% the tax aliquot in the industry. Finally, in Scenario 3 we adopt the assumption that operates an industrial policy that does not manifest itself by changing the tax aliquot, but by credit selectivity mechanisms, trade, scientific and technological policy etc., which generate an annual increase of 1.0 percentage point in the weight of industrial exports in total exports, and a reduction of the same percentage point in the share of imports of that sector in total imports. The results suggests that the implementation of an industrial policy of the type specifically considered in Scenario 3, as well as a change in current macroeconomic policy management model are importante to leverage Brazilian economic growth; otherwise the country will follow featuring low growth rates.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/22772 |
| Date | 24 May 2016 |
| Creators | Rodrigues, Crysl?ine Fl?via da Silva |
| Contributors | 15842948842, Leite, Fabricio Pitombo, 79339328515, Serrano, Franklin Leon Peres, 76074269734, Louren?o, Andr? Luis Cabral de |
| Publisher | PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM ECONOMIA, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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