D.Comm. / Foreign debt affects the economy through three main channels, namely: the debt overhang effect, the liquidity constraint effect and the uncertainty effect. The main aim of this study is to derive an optimal level of foreign debt relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for South Africa by investigating these channels. Incurring foreign debt is like a double edge sword. On the one side the foreign debt is needed for economic development (from a demand perspective) and on the other side the level of debt impacts on the economy through higher domestic interest rates, via the sovereign risk spread, (from a supply perspective). The factors that impact on capital flows as shown by previous periods of financial distress in the global capital markets and debt sustainability were investigated. This study shows that risk spreads are driven by both internal and external factors. Investors will price into the secondary risk spread their perceptions of the sustainability of foreign debt. This is also impacted by external factors such as contagion and the credit rating of a country. The different objectives of government in the internal capital market since 1994 and the secondary objectives of building liquidity benchmarks, diversifying the foreign currency portfolio, broadening the investor base in RSA bonds and borrowing at the most effective rates, are also discussed. A number of equations were estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and the values for government foreign debt were varied to test the impact on the familiar IS/LM/BP and AS/AD models. These models were further used to determine the debt overhang and liquidity constraint effect. It was found that foreign debt has an asymmetric impact on economic growth where it contributes to economic growth up to a level of approximately 35 per cent of GDP, where after it has a negative impact on economic growth.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:uj/uj:6922 |
| Date | 04 October 2010 |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
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