The purpose of this study was to estimate the short-term economic effects of oil price spikes upon Florida. A substantial disturbance in oil supplies is likely to generate a large price upsurge and a downturn in the level of economic activity. Each of these two effects diminishes demand by a certain amount. The specific price surge required to reduce demand to the lower level of supply can be calculated with an oil demand function and with empirical estimations of the association between price spikes and declines in economic activity. The first section of this study presents an energy demand model for Florida, which provides with the price and income elasticities needed. The second section includes theoretical explanations and empirical estimations of the relationship between price spikes and recessions. Based on historical evidence, it seems that Florida's and the nation's economic systems are very sensitive to oil price surges. As price spikes appear damaging to the economy, it could be expected that reductions in the price of oil are beneficial to the system. That is likely to be the case in the long run, but no empirical evidence of favorable short-term effects of oil price decreases was found. Several possible explanations and theoretical reasons are offered to explain this lack of association. The final section of the study presents estimates of the effect of oil disruptions upon specific industries in Florida and the United States. It seems that the construction, durable goods manufacturing, finance, and trade sectors are the most sensitive to oil disruptions, both for Florida and the nation. Numerical estimates of the association between price spikes and economic activity at the industry detailed level are highly compatible with associations found for aggregate data. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 53-03, Section: A, page: 0893. / Major Professor: Frederick W. Bell. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1992.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_76598 |
| Contributors | Mory, Javier Felipe., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 230 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
Page generated in 0.0017 seconds