The view that large-scale, long-range social theories cannot be predictive other than "in principle" is sufficiently widespread as to be considered the orthodox view. It is widely held that, lacking this predictive quality, social theories are cut off from a crucial form of vindication enjoyed by the experimental sciences. Thus many would agree with Ryan's assessment that while with regard to large-scale social changes "long-range prediction is not in principle impossible," nonetheless as a matter of practical methodology such a goal is of "dubious value."
The reason commonly proffered as to why social theories cannot be predictive is the causal complexity of social life. Because of this feature, it is held, while we may be able to unearth interesting social generalizations, we will not be able to predict the many initial conditions together with which they predict. Alternately, due to this complexity we are able to achieve no better than tendency laws which do not permit predictions of sufficient precision to allow for predictive testing. This has been held to be true for other causally complex fields as well. Thus, Scriven has argued that Darwin was "the paradigm of the explanatory but non-predictive scientist" due to the constraints imposed on his methodology by the causal complexity of the biosphere.
As a result of both an uncritical acceptance of the orthodox view and an
inadequate analysis of Marx's methodology, Daniel Little has argued that Marxian theory is non-predictive. However, a thorough analysis of Marx's labour process theory shows it to be both clearly predictive and subject to justification by predictive assessment. Moreover, a formalization of the theory indicates that available data confirm it as regards both its central hypothesis and the matrix of social causation it exhibits.
Little's position in regard to Marxian theory is strongly similar to Scriven's in regard to Darwinian theory. In both cases, faulty theoretical presuppositions combine with inadequate analysis to buttress false conclusions as to the asymmetry of explanation and prediction. Adequate analysis dispels Little's and Scriven's conclusions and exhibits important methodological parallels between Marx and Darwin. / Arts, Faculty of / Philosophy, Department of / Graduate
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UBC/oai:circle.library.ubc.ca:2429/30583 |
| Date | January 1990 |
| Creators | Gordon, Richard Douglas |
| Publisher | University of British Columbia |
| Source Sets | University of British Columbia |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, Thesis/Dissertation |
| Rights | For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use. |
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