Risk analysis using likelihood or probability and consequence (L x C) is prone to both methodological and application errors. This contributes to difficulties in achieving risk reduction. As an alternative to the L x C model, this study reviews risk and control effectiveness within the Australian extractive minerals industry. It draws on existing models, locally and internationally, and their application in other industry contexts. The study contends that control effectiveness is more useful and beneficial than L x C alone in determining ‘acceptable’ risk. This hypothesis is substantiated by the development of an alternative model, Major Accident Control Analysis (MACA), based around the prevention of fatalities by exploring and quantifying the following control parameters: 1) controls pre and/or post event, 2) the control type, and 3) the effectiveness of the specific control. By assigning these control parameters, discrete values, comparisons between individual ‘risk’ scenarios and established numerical acceptability risk criteria are possible. The theoretical proposition of this research was tested using detailed case studies to highlight the flaws of conventional risk analysis and, instead, accentuate control effectiveness as a superior method for prioritising risk and determine acceptability. The results of the research demonstrate that control effectiveness, utilised by the MACA method, is particularly valuable when limited data is available to permit quantification, data is too generalised for the operating conditions and where qualitative risk estimates are insufficient and inappropriate to prevent fatalities. MACA employs mathematically valid algorithms previously not envisaged nor developed by earlier methodologies. Importantly, these algorithms enable an interchangeable conversion of control effectiveness ‘values’ to risk ‘values’. Beyond the immediate findings of the research, the additional benefits of control effectiveness are multiple. The principles are suitable to the dynamic nature of the minerals industry, yet are highly adaptable and can be readily applied beyond the field of mining. The methodology could be applied to any circumstance where traditional risk analysis is typically undertaken, thus demonstrating broader application and significance. Furthermore, the methodology is compatible with, and complementary to, existing risk approaches. The intrinsic flexibility offered by this alternative method makes provision for international variations of risk criteria used to determine ‘acceptability’. It is thus determined that the application of control effectiveness estimation offers benefits over and beyond those currently employed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/288973 |
| Creators | Stephen Lawson |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Detected Language | English |
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