A set of forecast survey data is analyzed in this paper for properties consistent with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. Standard statistical tests for "rational expectations" are employed utilizing consensus forecasts generated by an interest rate newsletter. Four selected variables (Fed Funds rate, M1 rate of growth, rate of change in CPI, and real GNP growth rate) are analyzed over multiple time horizons. Results tend to reject "rational expectations" for most variables and time horizons. Forecasts are more likely to meet "rationality" criteria the shorter the forecast horizon, with the notable exception of forecasts of real GNP growth.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:unt.edu/info:ark/67531/metadc501259 |
| Date | 08 1900 |
| Creators | Dabbs, Russell Edward |
| Contributors | Smith, Kenneth Leon, Brocato, Joe M., Molina, David J. |
| Publisher | University of North Texas |
| Source Sets | University of North Texas |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis or Dissertation |
| Format | iv, 110 leaves: ill., Text |
| Rights | Public, Dabbs, Russell Edward, Copyright, Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights reserved. |
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