When a tropical cyclone (TC) is within 360 nautical miles of Kadena AB, the Air Force's Typhoon Determination (TYDET) program is used to estimate TC-induced winds expected at the base. Best-track data and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts are used to evaluate systematic errors in TYDET. The largest contributors to errors in TYDET are a systematic error by which wind speeds are too large and the lack of size and symmetry parameters. To examine these parameters, best-track and forecasts are used to classify TCs as small or large and symmetric or asymmetric. A linear regression technique is then used to adjust TYDET forecasts based on the best-track and forecast position, size, and symmetry categories. Using independent data, over 65 percent of the overall cross-wind forecasts were improved and more than 60 percent of the cross-wind forecasts were improved when verifying conditions noted a cross-wind of 20 knots or greater. The effectiveness of the corrections and implications for TYDET forecasts are examined in relation to errors in forecast data used to initialize TYDET. A similar approach as developed here for the TYDET model at Kadena AB is proposed for other bases within the Pacific theater.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/2908 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Fenlason, Joel W. |
| Contributors | Harr, Patrick A., Elsberry, Russell L., Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Department of Meteorology |
| Publisher | Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xviii, 91 p. : ill. (col.) ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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