The eastern brook trout is the only trout (charr) species native to the eastern U.S., which contains approximately 25% of the entire native range of the brook trout and 70% of the U.S. range. Stream temperature is a fundamental limiting factor in the distribution and production of brook trout and their range is bounded to the south by a mean July air temperature of 21ºC. Average air temperature in the U.S. has risen by 0.6ºC over the last century and may increase by another 6ºC over the next 100 years. Climate warming may threaten the long-term survival of the brook trout populations in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Using projected future climate scenarios and land use/land cover classes, we developed ordinal and binary logistic regression models to characterize current habitat suitability of brook trout, determine future suitable habitat and prioritize subwatersheds for brook trout conservation. Explanatory variables held in common in every model were the baseline variables (either forest or agriculture), the respective baseline variable with temperature as an interaction term and wetlands. This analysis further supports temperature as a major driver in the distribution of brook trout. Projected future suitable habitat was shown to be moving further north over time. This analysis resulted in map outputs illustrating areas of greatest brook trout population subwatershed status changes and indicates potential areas of concern for brook trout survival due to projected future climate scenarios. These results can aid in prioritizing subwatersheds for brook trout conservation and restoration.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NCSU/oai:NCSU:etd-06042009-152530 |
| Date | 10 August 2009 |
| Creators | Louie, Joan Yun-Yun |
| Contributors | Heather Cheshire, Steve McNulty, Stacy AC Nelson |
| Publisher | NCSU |
| Source Sets | North Carolina State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-06042009-152530/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dis sertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to NC State University or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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