Report to Hydrology Laboratory, Office of Hydrology,
National Weather Service, NOAH, Dept. of Commerce,
Contract 6 -35229 / The value of a forecast system in preventing urban property damage
depends on the accuracy of the forecasts, the time at which they are received,
the response by the floodplain dweller and the êfficacy of that response.
A systems model of the overall flood forecast -response system is developed.
Evaluation of the system is accomplished by a decision theoretic methodology.
A case study is done for Milton, Pennsylvania, which evaluates the present
system and potential changes to it. It is concluded that the sequential
nature of the forecast sequence must be considered in modeling the flood
forecast -response system if a meaningful evaluation of the economic value of
the system is to be obtained. Methodology for obtaining the parameterization
of the model from the available data is given. Computer programs have been
written to handle a good portion of the calculations. While more work is
needed on obtaining accurate parameterization of certain parts of the model,
such as the actual response to forecasts; use of the procedures and programs
as they now stand produces reasonable evaluations.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:arizona.edu/oai:arizona.openrepository.com:10150/620143 |
| Date | 01 1900 |
| Creators | Krzysztofowicz, Roman |
| Contributors | Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona, Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering, The University of Arizona |
| Publisher | Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ) |
| Source Sets | University of Arizona |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text, Technical Report |
| Source | Provided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources. |
| Rights | Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents |
| Relation | Technical Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 29 |
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