<p>Prema literaturnim podacima poslednjih godina velika pažnja je usmerena ka operativnom riziku i mortalitetu koji su postali najvažniji kriterijumi u ocenama rezultata rada hirurških ustanova, ali i svakog hirurga posebno. Zahvaljujući kompleksnom profilu pacijenata koji se podvrgavaju hirurškim intervencijama, precizna procena operativnog rizika postaje sve teža. Predikcija ishoda intervencije u najvećoj meri zavisi od preoperativnih faktora rizika. Ipak, neminovno je da i faktori koji su vezani za samu operaciju u određenom stepenu utiču na ishod hirurške intervencije. Shodno tome, dobar model za procenu rizika treba da obuhvati faktore koji će imati najbolju prediktivnu vrednost. Thoracoscore je prvi bodovni sistem razvijen od strane Francuskog udruženja grudnih i vaskularinih hiruga. Zbog nedovoljne primene tokom poslednje decenije i nekonzistentnih rezultata nije došlo do širokog međunarodnog prihvatanja ovog modela i njegove rutinske upotrebe. Ova činjenica ukazuje na nedostake samog modela i potrebu za rekalibracijom u cilju postizanja bolje saglasnosti između predikcije operativnog rizika i kliničkog stanja bolesnika. Cilj rada je bio da se ustanovi realna vrednost Thoracoscore bodovnog sistema u proceni operativnog rizika i mortaliteta nakon anatomskih i neanatomskih resekcija pluća u našim uslovima, i da se utvrdi prediktivna vrednost faktora rizika koji nisu obuhvaćeni Thoracoscore bodovnim sistemom na ishod grudno-hirurških operacija. Istraživanje je sprovedeno po tipu prospektivne kliničke studije i obuhvatilo je 957 bolesnika operisanih na Klinici za grudnu hirurgiju Instituta za plućne bolesti Vojvodine. Izvršene hirurške procedure bile su anatomske resekcije (lobektomija, bilobektomija, pneumonektomija, Sleeve resekcija, segmentektomija) i neanatomske resekcije pluća (Wedge resekcija i druge atipične resekcije). Thoracoscore je izračunat za svakog bolesnika na osnovu devet parametara: godine starosti, pol, ASA skor, dispnea skor, procena opšteg stanja bolesnika, dijagnostička grupa, hitnost operacije, vrsta operacije i broj komorbiditeta. S obzirom da prediktivna vrednost Thoracoscore bodovnog sistema u proceni operativnog rizika nije bila adekvatna realnom stanju, regresionom analizom je evaluiran značaj tri nova faktora: forsirani ekspiratorni volumen u prvoj sekundi (FEV1), reoperacija i hirurški pristup (torakotomija, video-asistirana torakoskopija – VATS). Nakon što je univarijantnom analizom potvrđeno da su ovi faktori nezavisni prediktori operativnog ishoda, originalni Thoracoscore model je rekalibrisan. Multivarijantnom analizom putem logističke regresije izračunati su novi beta koeficijenti za originalnih devet faktora, kao i za tri nova, te je kreiran lokalni model za procenu operativnog rizika koji je prilagođen našoj populaciji. Prosečna starosti bolesnika bila je 62 ± 7,52 godina. Većinu uzorka (60,7%) činili su pripadnici muškog pola. Najveći broj resekcija činile su lobektomije (61,4%). Malignitet je bio najučestalija indikacija za operaciju (90,3%). Najveći broj bolesnika imao je 1-2 komorbiditeta (64,3%). Prosečna stopa operativnog rizika na osnovu Thoracoscore-a (4,7% ) bila je veća je od stvarnog (2,9%) intrahospitalnog mortalita (p<0,01). Ovaj model je pokazao zadovoljavajuće rezultate jedino u grupi niskog rizika. Predikcija mortaliteta lokalnim modelom za procenu operativnog rizika u grudnoj hirurgiji se, u statističkom smislu, ne razlikuje od stvarnog mortaliteta (p = NS). Thoracoscore ima dobru diskriminativnu moć, ali nezadovoljavajuću kalibrisanost. Shodno tome, Thoracoscore model se može koristiti za stratifikaciju rizika, ali ne i za predikciju mortaliteta. Za razliku, lokalni model je pokazao dobru diskriminaciju i kalibrisanost u našim uslovima. Interni model za procenu rizika bi bio od velike koristi u svakodnevnom kliničkom radu, budući da bi oslikavao realno stanje populacije u kojoj je razvijen i vršio preciznu predikciju operativnog rizika.</p> / <p>According to the literature data, over the past several years, great attention has been focused on operative risk and mortality which have become the most important criteria in evaluating the results from surgical departments and individual surgeons, as well. Because of complex profiles of patients undergoing surgical interventions, it is becoming more difficult to assess the risk precisely. Prediction of surgical outcomes mostly depends on the preoperative risk factors. However, factors related to the procedure itself effect the surgical outcome to a certain degree. Therefore, a good risk assessment model must contain factors which will have the best predictive value. Thoracoscore is the first scoring system developed by the French Association of Thoracic and Vascular Surgeons. Due to insufficient utilization over the past decade and inconsistent results, this model has not been widely accepted for routine use. This fact indicates that the model lacks certain aspects and needs to be recalibrated in order to achieve better concordance between the predicted operative risk and the clinical state of the patient. The aim of this study was to determine real value of Thoracoscore scoring system for estimation of operative risk and mortality following anatomic and non-anatomic lung resections in our settings, and to determine predictive value of factors not included in Thoracoscore on the outcome of thoracic surgeries. This prospective study included 957 patients who underwent lung resections at the Thoracic surgery clinic of Institute for Lung Diseases of Vojvodina. Performed surgical procedures were anatomic lung resections (lobectomy, bilobectomy, pneumonectomy, Sleeve resection, segmentectomy) and non-anatomic lung resections (Wedge resection and other atypical resections). Thoracoscore was calculated for each patient based on the following nine parameters: age, gender, ASA score, dyspnea score, performance status classification, diagnostic group, urgency of surgery, surgical procedure and number of comorbidities. Because predictive value of Thoracoscore did not correspond to the actual results, regression analysis was used to evaluate the significance of three new risk factors: forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), reoperation, and surgical approach (thoracotomy, video-assisted thoracoscopy – VATS). After univariate analysis confirmed that these three factors are independent predictors of operative risk, the original Thoracoscore model was recalibrated. With the use of multivariate analysis by logistic regression, new beta coefficients were calculated for the original nine parameters, as well as for the new three, and consequently a local model for surgical risk assessment that is adapted to our population was created. Average age of patients was 62 ± 7.52 years. Most of the patients were males (60.7%). Lobectomies constituted the largest number (61.4%) of performed surgeries. The most common indications for surgery were malignant causes (90.3%). Most frequently, patients had 1-2 comorbidities (64.3%). Mean operative risk based on Thoracoscore (4.7%) was greater than the actual intrahospital mortality (2.9%) (p<0.01). This model had adequate results only in the low risk group of patients. Predicted mortality by the local model was not statistically different from the actual mortality (p = NS). Thoracoscore had good discriminative ability, but inadequate calibration. Because of this, Thoracoscore model can be used for risk stratification, but not for mortality prediction. On the other hand, local model showed good discrimination and calibration in our population. Therefore, an internal model for risk assessment would be of great use in everyday clinical practice because it would reflect the real state of the population in which it was developed, predicting the risk more precisely.</p>
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uns.ac.rs/oai:CRISUNS:(BISIS)104894 |
| Date | 27 September 2019 |
| Creators | Mališanović Gorica |
| Contributors | Gvozdenović Ljiljana, Kopitović Ivan, Đurić Dejan, Sečen Svetozar, Nikolić Dragan, Ivanov Dejan, Gudurić Branimir |
| Publisher | Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Medicinski fakultet u Novom Sadu, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Medicine at Novi Sad |
| Source Sets | University of Novi Sad |
| Language | Serbian |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | PhD thesis |
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