Energy demand forecasting, and specifically electricity demand forecasting, is a fun-damental feature in both industry and research. Forecasting techniques assist all electricity market participants in accurate planning, selling and purchasing decisions and strategies. Generation and distribution of electricity require appropriate, precise and accurate forecasting methods. Also accurate forecasting models assist producers, researchers and economists to make proper and beneficial future decisions. There are several research papers, which investigate this fundamental aspect and attempt var-ious statistical techniques. Although weather and economic effects have significant influences on electricity demand, in this study they are purposely eliminated from investigation. This research considers calendar-related effects such as months of the year, weekdays and holidays (that is, public holidays, the day before a public holiday, the day after a public holiday, school holidays, university holidays, Easter holidays and major religious holidays) and includes university exams, general election days, day after elections, and municipal elections in the analysis. Regression analysis, cate-gorical regression and auto-regression are used to illustrate the relationships between response variable and explanatory variables. The main objective of the investigation was to build forecasting models based on this calendar data only and to observe how accurate the models can be without taking into account weather effects and economic effects, hence weather neutral models. Weather and economic factors have to be forecasted, and these forecasts are not so accurate and calendar events are known for sure (error-free). Collecting data for weather and economic factors is costly and time consuming, while obtaining calendar data is relatively easy.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:nmmu/vital:10578 |
| Date | January 2013 |
| Creators | Nyulu, Thandekile |
| Publisher | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Faculty of Science |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis, Masters, MSc |
| Format | xii, 84, 12, 7 leaves, pdf |
| Rights | Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University |
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