Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast
the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African
context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are
used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future.
To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the
historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South
Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined
through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected
in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3
gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world,
including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These
techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology
forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to
financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest
method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This
includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations.
The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful
method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value
chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of
forecasting methodologies.
The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the
South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a
Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future
developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest
Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood,
based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future
cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery.
Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should
prepare itself for the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n
vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die
metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid
daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n
nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf.
Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word.
Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide
'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van
Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby
plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word
weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering
en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van
tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie
vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge
is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie
vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning.
Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele
masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die
mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te
vergelyk.
Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare
metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie
ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek.
Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid
Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur
middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van
kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae
wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout,
denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die
toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid
teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie.
As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei
om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:sun/oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/52188 |
| Date | 12 1900 |
| Creators | Brink, Michal |
| Contributors | Kellogg, L. D., Uys, H. J. E., Buys, A., Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Forest and Wood Science. |
| Publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | en_ZA |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | 2 v. : ill. |
| Rights | Stellenbosch University |
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