In a more competitive environment, load forecast serves two different applications. First, load forecast results can be used by the retailers of power to study their opportunities and plan their business strategies. Second, accurate projections of load are useful for T&D operators in performing system operation and expansion studies. Several key elements in their market and system planning studies have strong location factors that the spatial load forecast can address. In this dissertation, a package that integrates a Geographic Information System (GIS) used for automatic mapping and facility management (AM/FM) and a spatial load forecast module is presented. The interface functions and the procedure of the fuzzy logic based spatial load forecast module are described. Simulation studies are performed on a metropolitan area of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
The conventional fuzzy modeling has a drawback in that the fuzzy rules or the fuzzy membership functions are determined by trial and error. In this dissertation an automatic model identification procedure is proposed to construct the fuzzy model for short-term load forecast. In this method an analysis of variance is used to identify the influential variables on the system load. To setup the fuzzy rules, a cluster estimation method is adopted to determine the number of rules and the membership functions of variables involved in the premises of the rules. A recursive least square method is then used to determine the coefficients in the conclusion parts of the rules. None of these steps involves nonlinear optimization and all steps have well-bounded computation time.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0627101-151951 |
| Date | 27 June 2001 |
| Creators | Wu, Hung-Chih |
| Contributors | Li Wang, Chao-Shun Chen, Sheng-Nian Yeh, Ching-Tsai Pan, Chi-Jui Wu, Chan-Nan Lu |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0627101-151951 |
| Rights | unrestricted, Copyright information available at source archive |
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